Lance Roberts says a bunch of stuff about housing. None of it matters.
The government programs, foreclosures, etc. It all means nothing.
Unless you think there will be a significant rise in homelessness the only thing that matters is formation vs. units.
If someone is for foreclosed on where do they go?
If someone short selling, where do they go?
If I am “waiting for a better” market to sell my house. What exactly am I waiting for? Presumably to buy yet another house or move into some rental.
You can’t look at for sale inventory and think that is telling you a lot because virtually every seller – even REO – represents some buyer of either rental housing or an owner occupied home.
Only changes in formation matter for net demand.