Nouriel Roubini writes
Third, while US data have been surprisingly encouraging, America’s growth momentum appears to be peaking. Fiscal tightening will escalate in 2012 and 2013, contributing to a slowdown, as will the expiration of tax benefits that boosted capital spending in 2011. Moreover, given continuing malaise in credit and housing markets, private consumption will remain subdued; indeed, two percentage points of the 2.8% expansion in the last quarter of 2011 reflected rising inventories rather than final sales.
Nouriel and I were simpatico on the housing/financial collapse. Biggest difference is that he predicted that two major broker-dealers would go under. I said the Fed would never let even one go under. I’m gonna say [because it paints me in a better light] that we split the difference with only one being allowed to fail.
In any case, that was then, this is now. Things really are different. Yet, when I read Nouriel I read the same story, as if it is forever August 2007 and folks just can’t read the tea leaves.
There are risk but the fundamentals are completely unlike what they have been for the past several years.