It would be nice if there was an Intrade on whether APPL will pay a dividend so we could get an independent metric of expectations.

However, if Matt and I are right then if and when it becomes well accepted that APPL will pay a dividend the share price will rise sharply. Of course, I should say will expectedly rise since there are always confounding factors.

But, because I ‘d rather have a firm loss than a wishy-washy win, I will go with will rise sharply.

With luck the news/realization/rumor mill will hit suddenly rather than slowly spilling out over months. Then we can have a clear test.