Business Insider has some commentary on 2012 GDP estimates from some the major banks.
I would have to sit and count each sub-sector to come up with a number but 2.2% sounds low to me. The 3% number sounds more reasonable.
Bank of America: This answer sounds like pure charting to me. The future will be like the past, only more so. I don’t see in particular reason to think that exports will be a strong factor in US growth. For one, increasing oil prices will drive down net exports. For two, a falling Euro will cut into US exports not only to Europe but to the developing world as European firms compete against American firms.
If you think the Euro is not going to fall then you should say why.
CITI: This is a non-answer
Deutsche Bank: Someone here reads Modeled Behavior. Or, the actual BEA tables. Notice the separation of business equipment, which is another term for transportation equipment, from Equipment and Software. I like it.
Goldman Sachs: Non-Answer
JP Morgan: The first sentence upsets me a bit. Did you even look at the sub-sectors? Is it not clear that the strength is from a mild bounce back in transportation equipment combined with a roaring boom in IT equipment and software that was barely impacted by the recession.
If you think that we are returning to sustainable levels then you think that E&S will continue to be strong. If you think that something has changed about the software boom then that’s another story.
Housing and other structures are also obviously very low but what’s the case for 2012. Its not the same for housing and non-residential structures from where I sit.