Europe continues to pose threat to the entire global economy. My “gut sense” that we could put this baby to bed is not as strong now as it was a week or so ago when I made that call.
Nonetheless, I do have the sense that the Global Financial System will be backstopped and thus the worst will avoid us.
Mean while the fundamentals in the US continue to look strong.
New Claims was not only down big but revised down from previous weeks, if I remember the numbers correctly. Big downs are likely to be revised, but if we are good Bayesians then we know the bigger the down the better, even if it comes with a wider confidence interval.
NY and Philly Fed survey’s both look good.
My one area of concern is that industrial production looks to be genuinely slowing. A few more months in this vein and it will be hard to deny that there has been a trend slowdown.
I will get into the details of the Industrial Production numbers later.
Also, I’ve put out this Bleg before but I know that weekly Industrial Production data is produced but I don’t know how to get it.