80 thousand in September, 104 thousands private.

Everyone will say this is a weak report and not enough to keep up with population growth. This is all true.

Lets be good Bayesians though and ask how this report changes our priors about the movement of the economy.

From that perspective the internals look pretty good

Construction lost 20K but we have copious real time information on construction and the fundamentals tell us it is at a very low level but will be picking up. Also I slightly suspect this will be revised up as Non-residential specialty lost 22K but we know that power lines are going up across the country.

Manufacturing gained only 5K and motor vehicle parts only 6.5K .Yet we know that real time sales in vehicles is on the rise.

Some weakness across the board in non-durable manufacturing which IS bad news cause I don’t have a better real-time series for that stuff. Will check against the industrial production data. Perhaps, worst I don’t have sales broken down in this way in real time and so this is the best information we have.

Government lost 24K jobs. However, we understand what’s going on here and its not cyclical. That is to say it is not related to monetary policy per se. So it tells us nothing about the general state of the economy.

The private service economy added 114K which is well on pace with the last recovery. There is more to be said, that maybe I will get to later today. But, here is the long-run trend on private sector service sector employment.

FRED Graph

Notice that its just as strong as the last recovery though coming sooner. Not quite as strong as the 80 and 90s.

On the other hand goods and government over that period look like this

FRED Graph

To the extent there is a structural transformation afoot in the US economy, this is it.

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