Kansas City Fed report shows stable manufacturing in the region. Production and employment fell slightly but capital expenditures rose. This is nice to hear but doesn’t tell us much. KC Fed district is small in terms of output and its mostly geared towards natural resources.

On the other hand New Claims for unemployment insurances rose to 417K. That’s two rises in a row and importantly they have broken what I expected to be a strong down streak. Its not just that we are at 417K, its that we are not at 370K – where would have been if we kept trending down.

This of course leans toward the narrative that growth in the United States is slowing and the summer wasn’t just a blip.