Off the cuff initial claims look OK. They are up and the revision from last week is up. Still the 4-week moving average is headed down and a fair pace. Had we gotten a decrease from last weeks advance estimate of 395K, that would have been very nice. As it stands its OK.
There is nothing that stands out to me in the inflation report either. I was looking for a pick up in rents but it doesn’t seem to be here yet. We do see a continuously strong price growth in lodging. That matches with the decline in lodging vacancies that we’ve seen. This is good news for Las Vegas, I would imagine.
However, I don’t think we are in an environment where we can expect a lot of new hotel projects anytime soon. So, as for the larger economy that not much of gain.
The price growth for used cars is still reasonably strong, though predictably it has moderated for new cars. I would not have been shocked to see new car prices fall in the wake of Japan being cleared up. All in all, while the long term outlook is still for used car price growth to push more people in new cars, we are not there yet.
So, this mostly a set of wait and see reports.