Arpit Gupta runs the Guns and Butter model with updated data. The upshot and a nice chart

I decided to run the full model with the 2010 election as an additional data point. This is the relevant point to use in evaluating all of the data to use for future modeling; but it may overstate the fit exactly for 2010 slightly. Here’s what I have:

The new prediction for 2010 is 202.5 seats. This overstates Dem gains about about 10 seats, but does cut the overstatement.

I wondered how much adding 2010 did on its own, so next I threw out the 2010 data, and fit the 2010 election based on previous election data, but current economic data: now, I get a Democrat prediction of 206 seats. Roughly, a fourth of the Democrat "underperformance" can be accounted for by economic conditions that were worse than thought at the time.

So if you re-run the model – which I prefer to do but understand why other’s wouldn’t – then roughly half of the democratic underperformance goes away. If you use the co-effecients from the model run before 2010, but incorporate new and better data then about a quarter of the underperformance goes away.

Long story short, we can make a decent argument that the majority of democratic losses were structural but there are still enough excess losses for defenders of non-reductionist politics to stay alive.

Don’t worry, with more data, your days will be numbered. Reductionism swallows all.

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