The fundamentals still lean towards growth – that’s my story and I am sticking to it. Nonetheless, the real time data leaves me squirming in my seat.
New claims for unemployment insurance bumped up again this week. We are now back around 418K level. What disconcerting here is simply that we bumped up – the series is volatile – its that we are not seeing the kind significant downward pressure I would expect. I would have wanted to break into the 350s by early Fall. That seems highly unlikely at this point
Our second regional manufacturing survey is out and its not as good as we could have hoped. We moved from mild contraction last month to just a bare expansion this month. That’s a move in a positive direction but it was to be expected.
The narrative I was working from was that manufacturing disruptions were temporary. Given that we should be seeing upward movement. I would have wanted to see something stronger.