From the DOL

In the week ending July 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 405,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 427,000. The 4-week moving average was 423,250, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 427,000.

Additionally it appears that 11K of those were related to the Minnesota government shut down.

Put together that makes it seem as if we have resumed the downward trajectory we had before the last few months. My working hypothesis is still that we say temporary shocks – gas prices, Japan. That are easing.

I know its sounds like a broken record but the fundamental still point to moderate and increasing growth over 2011 with an acceleration into 2012 as construction picks up.