Several times in the last few days I have used the following phrase in presentations to officials and business leaders

My baseline is __________ but I expect surprises to be to the upside

Now, I suppose I could weave some complex distributional argument where this statement made sense. In truth, I used it without thinking, because its how other folks talk.

The most commonsense explanation for the odd “expectation of surprises” is that this is another way of saying “I am lying to you.” 

Indeed, I am lying. Convention dictates that at this point in the cycle I predict medium-high growth in most measures that people are interested in.

That is not, however, what I actually believe. I believe that some of these measures will show very high growth. Yet, rather than coming out and saying that , I say “but I expect surprises to be to the upside.”