Nick Rowe thinks Bernanke is confusing people

The Fed is trying to communicate two things. First, it is trying to communicate that it will buy long term bonds and this policy will be effective by pushing down yields on long term bonds, which should increase consumption and investment demand. Second, it is trying to communicate that this policy will be effective in increasing future inflation and real growth, both of which will push up yields on long term bonds. The Fed’s "communications strategy" is self-contradictory. No single individual can believe both parts of that communications strategy at once.

However, the Fed’s strategy can be summed up succinctly for bankers: get out of long dated nominal Treasuries. In the short run we are pushing down yields, so we are lowering the return you can lock in. In the long run yields are going to pop up so you are going to take capital losses.

Ergo: find some other place to put your money. If you don’t want the zero nominal returns of cash or T-bills, I guess that means heading over to the real economy.

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