Greg Mankiw relays the odds for the Economics Nobel pick and some of them are well odd.

Eugene Fama 2/1
Paul Romer 4/1
Ernst Fehr 6/1
Kenneth R. French 6/1
William Nordhaus 6/1
Robert Barro 7/1
Matthew J Rabin 8/1
Jean Tirole 9/1
Martin Weitzman 9/1
Chris Pissarides 10/1
Dale T Mortensen 10/1
Xavier Sala-i-Martin 10/1
Avinash Dixit 14/1
Jagdish N. Bhagwati 14/1
Robert Schiller [sic] 14/1

Fama at 2-to-1? Not unless the Nobel Committee is completely tone deaf. Fama is a pillar figure in financial economics but this is not the year for finance and not the year for Fama’s work in particular (rational markets)

Nordhaus puzzles me a bit. Quite frankly this would be a bit of a political pick. Nordhaus’s most famous work being on Climate Change models. (My apologies if I am missing some seminal earlier work.) However, if the odds are that the committee is political then Fama goes to zero. More over the better political pick is below.

Barro, I have been guessing Barro for the last several years. You may or may not like his style but the man’s fingerprints are everywhere. I would rank him at the top.

Dixit, actually I didn’t know Dixit didn’t have a prize. This overdue and quite frankly he should have shared with Krugman.

Shiller. If you want a political pick then Shiller is your man. Calling the 2001 bubble. Charting and calling the Housing bubble. Making the strongest case against rational markets there is. If you don’t go with Barro or Dixit then you go with Shiller in my mind.