Finally! Major drop in jobless claims, well below 600K.

Weekly Claims fell from a revised 617K to 565K last week. My preferred measure, the four week moving average, also fell from 613K to 598K. This is the kind of drop I have been looking for, for the past few weeks.

We have to be a little cautious in that this was a Holiday. Benefit offices were likely to be closed. Some potential filers were likely to be out of town. The statistics compensate for that somewhat but can never be perfect.

Regardless, here is a look at the near term chart.


Pretty clear downward trajectory at this point. What we need to make us feel much better going forward is for next weeks number not to go above 600K. We should expect some rise. There is significant noise in this series and it is unlikely that all of the good news is real news.

However, a number below 600K will keep the four week moving in the right direction.