I’ve been frustrated over the past couple of months at the failure of housing in general and mutli-family housing in particular to respond to market in forces in the way I predicted late last year.

Part of the issue, however, seems to have been that the data was simply behind the curve. Sharp upward revisions to the past few months put us closer to the track I had expected and if by chance similar revisions come in with the next two months data we will be on track.

From Bill McBride

Total housing starts were at 717 thousand (SAAR) in April, up 2.6% from the revised March rate of 699 thousand (SAAR). Note that March was revised up sharply from 654 thousand.

Single-family starts increased 2.3% to 492 thousand in April. March was revised up to 481 thousand from 462 thousand.

Also, though the permits data was revised up was well it has been much more consistent and shows something closer to the parabolic path I had been expecting.

FRED Graph

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