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	<title>Comments on: Batteries, Smartphones and Driverless Cars</title>
	<atom:link href="http://modeledbehavior.com/2012/04/18/batteries-smartphones-and-driverless-cars/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://modeledbehavior.com/2012/04/18/batteries-smartphones-and-driverless-cars/</link>
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		<title>By: radyo</title>
		<link>http://modeledbehavior.com/2012/04/18/batteries-smartphones-and-driverless-cars/#comment-28144</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[radyo]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Aug 2012 20:54:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://modeledbehavior.wordpress.com/?p=11850#comment-28144</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Do you think there will come a time when it will “make sense” to build entirely new cities, from the ground up, that maximize efficiency?......]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Do you think there will come a time when it will “make sense” to build entirely new cities, from the ground up, that maximize efficiency?&#8230;&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Andrew D. Todd</title>
		<link>http://modeledbehavior.com/2012/04/18/batteries-smartphones-and-driverless-cars/#comment-27068</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew D. Todd]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 May 2012 23:59:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://modeledbehavior.wordpress.com/?p=11850#comment-27068</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The form of electric transportation which works is the sliding electric contact, such as a third rail or an overhead wire. Electric trains, running on specially equipped tracks, have been widely used for more than a hundred years. The railroads gave up on batteries after a very brief experiment, more than a hundred years ago. Now, a personal computer was an exercise in scaling an existing mainframe computer, such as an IBM 370, down to the point that everyone could have one. Very well, what is needed is to scale the electric train down to the point that everyone can have his own private &quot;special train,&quot; consisting of a single vehicle the size of an automobile. This is sometimes called Personal Rapid Transit, or PRT, though the actual built implementations fall short of the ideal.

For their own internal political reasons, the automakers have pursued technological dead ends, which they might reasonably have been expected to recognize as dead ends. The same applies for Silicon Valley. The result is that all we get is political gestures, rather than effective transportation. One problem is that the best solution is often to drive an automobile onto a railroad transporter car, park it, be carried for a considerable distance, and drive off at the other end. However, to the horror of the automakers, you can drive any old jalopy onto a transporter car. Industrial goods, such as railroad transporter cars, are commonly built to last for fifty years or more. Fifty years! Oh, the horror!!

Here is an extended piece I wrote a couple of years ago, discussing some of the issued related to electric cars:

http://rowboats-sd-ca.com/adtodd1a/blog_01.htm]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The form of electric transportation which works is the sliding electric contact, such as a third rail or an overhead wire. Electric trains, running on specially equipped tracks, have been widely used for more than a hundred years. The railroads gave up on batteries after a very brief experiment, more than a hundred years ago. Now, a personal computer was an exercise in scaling an existing mainframe computer, such as an IBM 370, down to the point that everyone could have one. Very well, what is needed is to scale the electric train down to the point that everyone can have his own private &#8220;special train,&#8221; consisting of a single vehicle the size of an automobile. This is sometimes called Personal Rapid Transit, or PRT, though the actual built implementations fall short of the ideal.</p>
<p>For their own internal political reasons, the automakers have pursued technological dead ends, which they might reasonably have been expected to recognize as dead ends. The same applies for Silicon Valley. The result is that all we get is political gestures, rather than effective transportation. One problem is that the best solution is often to drive an automobile onto a railroad transporter car, park it, be carried for a considerable distance, and drive off at the other end. However, to the horror of the automakers, you can drive any old jalopy onto a transporter car. Industrial goods, such as railroad transporter cars, are commonly built to last for fifty years or more. Fifty years! Oh, the horror!!</p>
<p>Here is an extended piece I wrote a couple of years ago, discussing some of the issued related to electric cars:</p>
<p><a href="http://rowboats-sd-ca.com/adtodd1a/blog_01.htm" rel="nofollow">http://rowboats-sd-ca.com/adtodd1a/blog_01.htm</a></p>
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		<title>By: El Gran Ogro</title>
		<link>http://modeledbehavior.com/2012/04/18/batteries-smartphones-and-driverless-cars/#comment-26550</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[El Gran Ogro]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Apr 2012 06:48:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://modeledbehavior.wordpress.com/?p=11850#comment-26550</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The conflation of the idea of this post with communism is silly. The idea here isnt to limit personal freedom to get where you want, its to have that same freedom to get where you want when you want while (a) not worrying about where to park and (b) having the freedom to do other things while en route to your destination. Plus removing the blight of empty asphalt and eliminating worries of being hit by drunk drivers. Seems like wins all around. Except for those people that like to drive in stop-n-go traffic.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The conflation of the idea of this post with communism is silly. The idea here isnt to limit personal freedom to get where you want, its to have that same freedom to get where you want when you want while (a) not worrying about where to park and (b) having the freedom to do other things while en route to your destination. Plus removing the blight of empty asphalt and eliminating worries of being hit by drunk drivers. Seems like wins all around. Except for those people that like to drive in stop-n-go traffic.</p>
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		<title>By: Serge Baruch</title>
		<link>http://modeledbehavior.com/2012/04/18/batteries-smartphones-and-driverless-cars/#comment-26388</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Serge Baruch]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2012 21:41:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://modeledbehavior.wordpress.com/?p=11850#comment-26388</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Scientific/engimeering content of the article is correct, but its social analysis is a flop. The prime purpose of a private car is freedom: freedom from schedules of public transport or other people&#039;s plans (as in sharing schemes). So when &#039;most of the cars are idle most of the time&#039; it&#039;s not a failure: they&#039;re standing by for our whims. That&#039;s why people are prepared to pay their enormous - sometimes moronic - price. 

Freedom is priceless.

Only the so called social engineering could change this... not. Take the example of Albania under the communist regime: for decades private cars and any religion were banned there by &#039;law&#039;. After the regime&#039;s fall, the country was filled to brims with Europen junk-yards&#039; wrecks. Same will happen in North Korea when the pudgy Kim III followes Ghaddafi and the likes.

So technology improvement is the only way, forget all the social(ist) engineering. Car sharing and the likes will never amount to more than fringe experiments.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Scientific/engimeering content of the article is correct, but its social analysis is a flop. The prime purpose of a private car is freedom: freedom from schedules of public transport or other people&#8217;s plans (as in sharing schemes). So when &#8216;most of the cars are idle most of the time&#8217; it&#8217;s not a failure: they&#8217;re standing by for our whims. That&#8217;s why people are prepared to pay their enormous &#8211; sometimes moronic &#8211; price. </p>
<p>Freedom is priceless.</p>
<p>Only the so called social engineering could change this&#8230; not. Take the example of Albania under the communist regime: for decades private cars and any religion were banned there by &#8216;law&#8217;. After the regime&#8217;s fall, the country was filled to brims with Europen junk-yards&#8217; wrecks. Same will happen in North Korea when the pudgy Kim III followes Ghaddafi and the likes.</p>
<p>So technology improvement is the only way, forget all the social(ist) engineering. Car sharing and the likes will never amount to more than fringe experiments.</p>
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		<title>By: Government and the electric car &#124; News &#8211; All Net 24 IT Service</title>
		<link>http://modeledbehavior.com/2012/04/18/batteries-smartphones-and-driverless-cars/#comment-26381</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Government and the electric car &#124; News &#8211; All Net 24 IT Service]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2012 18:41:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://modeledbehavior.wordpress.com/?p=11850#comment-26381</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] efficiency improvements in more traditional engines will keep full EVs a niche product until more fundamental changes occur in car markets. There might never be a day in which most, or even a meaningful minority, of [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] efficiency improvements in more traditional engines will keep full EVs a niche product until more fundamental changes occur in car markets. There might never be a day in which most, or even a meaningful minority, of [...]</p>
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		<title>By: engineer27 (@engineer27)</title>
		<link>http://modeledbehavior.com/2012/04/18/batteries-smartphones-and-driverless-cars/#comment-26323</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[engineer27 (@engineer27)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Apr 2012 20:34:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://modeledbehavior.wordpress.com/?p=11850#comment-26323</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;Then folks will look in awe and want it for themselves.&quot;
Big assumption there. Americans are likely to look at it and say &quot;fine for Koreans (Europeans, etc) but Umericens gotta have more LIBERTY.&quot;

Also, we REALLY love our cars. They are personal statements. Plus, we use them to store a lot of sh*t our spouses don&#039;t want cluttering up the house.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Then folks will look in awe and want it for themselves.&#8221;<br />
Big assumption there. Americans are likely to look at it and say &#8220;fine for Koreans (Europeans, etc) but Umericens gotta have more LIBERTY.&#8221;</p>
<p>Also, we REALLY love our cars. They are personal statements. Plus, we use them to store a lot of sh*t our spouses don&#8217;t want cluttering up the house.</p>
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		<title>By: Rob</title>
		<link>http://modeledbehavior.com/2012/04/18/batteries-smartphones-and-driverless-cars/#comment-26316</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Rob]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Apr 2012 19:43:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://modeledbehavior.wordpress.com/?p=11850#comment-26316</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I largely agree with this post, although I wonder: how do we get there from the expectation that most (50%+) workers are expected to be at work between the hours of 8 to 5, local time, give or take an hour?

(Is this no longer a valid assumption in today&#039;s information-based industry?)]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I largely agree with this post, although I wonder: how do we get there from the expectation that most (50%+) workers are expected to be at work between the hours of 8 to 5, local time, give or take an hour?</p>
<p>(Is this no longer a valid assumption in today&#8217;s information-based industry?)</p>
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		<title>By: Science guy</title>
		<link>http://modeledbehavior.com/2012/04/18/batteries-smartphones-and-driverless-cars/#comment-26309</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Science guy]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Apr 2012 17:23:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://modeledbehavior.wordpress.com/?p=11850#comment-26309</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[http://www.exxonmobilperspectives.com/2011/12/14/how-many-gallons-of-gasoline-would-it-take-to-charge-an-iphone/]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.exxonmobilperspectives.com/2011/12/14/how-many-gallons-of-gasoline-would-it-take-to-charge-an-iphone/" rel="nofollow">http://www.exxonmobilperspectives.com/2011/12/14/how-many-gallons-of-gasoline-would-it-take-to-charge-an-iphone/</a></p>
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		<title>By: Science guy</title>
		<link>http://modeledbehavior.com/2012/04/18/batteries-smartphones-and-driverless-cars/#comment-26308</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Science guy]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Apr 2012 17:23:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://modeledbehavior.wordpress.com/?p=11850#comment-26308</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I embrace the personal productivity gains from AVs.  If only I could read the newspaper door to door on my way to work in RTP.  However, the posting missed the basic physical and chemical limits on batteries (which have improved over the last decade).  Unfortunately, competing with the energy density of hydrocarbon fuel is incredibly difficult.  For further reading I suggest:]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I embrace the personal productivity gains from AVs.  If only I could read the newspaper door to door on my way to work in RTP.  However, the posting missed the basic physical and chemical limits on batteries (which have improved over the last decade).  Unfortunately, competing with the energy density of hydrocarbon fuel is incredibly difficult.  For further reading I suggest:</p>
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		<title>By: cig</title>
		<link>http://modeledbehavior.com/2012/04/18/batteries-smartphones-and-driverless-cars/#comment-26297</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[cig]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Apr 2012 15:35:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://modeledbehavior.wordpress.com/?p=11850#comment-26297</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[If you manage to find a way to share vehicles, then battery swapping probably becomes uneconomic as you&#039;d get high enough usage anyway, compared to the enormous startup cost and obsolescence risk of a swap infrastructure delivering pretty little incremental benefit.

The US natural gas boom has only a few years to go in so far as being relatively cheaper. As people adapt (build export infrastructure, switch some consumption where you can pick the fuel to natural gas), prices will converge with oil and the rest.

I don&#039;t believe battery tech not improving in consumer electronics is correct: it&#039;s just slow compared to Moore law, as there&#039;s only been incremental improvements and no paradigm shifting breakthrough, but slow is not the same as zero.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you manage to find a way to share vehicles, then battery swapping probably becomes uneconomic as you&#8217;d get high enough usage anyway, compared to the enormous startup cost and obsolescence risk of a swap infrastructure delivering pretty little incremental benefit.</p>
<p>The US natural gas boom has only a few years to go in so far as being relatively cheaper. As people adapt (build export infrastructure, switch some consumption where you can pick the fuel to natural gas), prices will converge with oil and the rest.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t believe battery tech not improving in consumer electronics is correct: it&#8217;s just slow compared to Moore law, as there&#8217;s only been incremental improvements and no paradigm shifting breakthrough, but slow is not the same as zero.</p>
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		<title>By: Henrald Eldinho</title>
		<link>http://modeledbehavior.com/2012/04/18/batteries-smartphones-and-driverless-cars/#comment-26284</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Henrald Eldinho]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Apr 2012 14:25:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://modeledbehavior.wordpress.com/?p=11850#comment-26284</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Do you think there will come a time when it will &quot;make sense&quot; to build entirely new cities, from the ground up, that maximize efficiency?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Do you think there will come a time when it will &#8220;make sense&#8221; to build entirely new cities, from the ground up, that maximize efficiency?</p>
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