I think a big part of why people struggle to imagine a world where cars drive themselves is they believe too few people will want it, at least in this country. There needs to be a minimum number of customers to support both the technology and the political will to pass laws allowing something that many will instinctively feel is dangerous. So how do we get from here to there? Garrett Jones proposes one way that I think is persuasive:
A thin edge of the wedge for Google Cars: an alternative to driver’s licenses for some of the elderly. Voter demand meets tech solution.
If there is one group is this country with the money, the demand, and the political influence to get us driverless cars it is the elderly. Another constituency will be the disabled, as illustrated in the following video of a blind man riding in a Google driverless car:
Many see driverless cars as a solution to a problem we don’t have, but in fact for many this would be an extremely liberating technological advance.
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Sunday ~ April 1st, 2012 at 7:36 pm
curtd59
I think what we want is actually:
a) automated accident avoidance systems for commuters (and I think insurance companies will drive this feature into the economy)
a) automated highway ‘steering control’ on top of existing ‘cruise control’.
b) automated driving for commercial and military vehicles.
c) ‘Take Me Home” taxi service for when we’re very tired (or under the influence.)
I can see all of these features selling. But I agree with you that it’s unlikely that the personal expression that is part of our driving is desirable. And for those of us who drive recreationally, we just dont even want it.
I’ve driven across the vastness of the USA too many times and there is a too of it where there’s no point in human processing power controlling the vehicle.
Sunday ~ April 1st, 2012 at 10:28 pm
Jeff
I guessing you don’t have elderly parents. If there’s one group of people who are super enthusiastic about and trusting of technology, it isn’t the elderly…
Monday ~ April 2nd, 2012 at 11:29 am
lfvoss
The elderly of the future will be increasingly comfortable with new technology.
Monday ~ April 2nd, 2012 at 6:32 am
Google car for the blind. And then for everybody. « Flying like a banana blog
[...] How we get to computer driven cars (modeledbehavior.com) [...]
Monday ~ April 2nd, 2012 at 9:45 am
Jordan Siron (@JsironStories)
lol @ Jeff
I didn’t even know we had cars that could do such things for the blind — let alone the elderly or the lazy! Leave it to Google.
http://www.carsmetics.com/Massachusetts/Saugus
Monday ~ April 2nd, 2012 at 10:45 am
Lord
Considering all the wasted hours of commuting, you may be underestimating its appeal, especially if it optional to use it. There is no freedom involved in commuting, only fatigue and frustration. Freedom is for weekends.
Monday ~ April 2nd, 2012 at 11:56 am
Alan
> Many see driverless cars as a solution to a problem we don’t have,
And every single one of those people is an idiot. Driverless cars will be a revolution. There will be no feature worth more to the non-exotic driver. The car manufactures are fiddling while Rome burns, they should be spending like there is no tomorrow to win the race for this technology.
Monday ~ April 2nd, 2012 at 4:39 pm
Gepap
“Many see driverless cars as a solution to a problem we don’t have”
We do have a problem, that of people driving. Human drivers aren’t awful, but the rate of accidents is pretty high and the human cost significant. Taking driving out of human hands does solve a significant current problem.
Monday ~ April 2nd, 2012 at 5:03 pm
cig
I’m with curtd59 that this sort of technology is more likely to be implemented as incremental driving aids than full automation, at least in the immediate future.
The elderly angle seems far fetched, as it only really applies to those too invalid to drive, yet valid enough to be left unattended in a vehicle. The valid elderly should have the same preferences as the general population. So sounds a bit too niche, and competing with other forms of automation (automate things that previously required transportation on site).
If full automation comes later on, it could just come through cost, basically it makes taxis cheaper than own vehicle ownership. Once you remove the driver the cost advantage of pooled vehicles (less idle time, no parking issues) may be overwhelming. The resistance here is the social dildo function of car ownership, as you can’t broadcast your economic status using automated taxis… but people may find other ways to do that.
Monday ~ April 2nd, 2012 at 9:48 pm
Benny Lava
I don’t believe in this for a few reasons. First, what of insurance? If it gets in an accident who is liable? Second, commuting requires an aggressive style of driving that makes this unfeasible for most commuters. Third, the idea of this car utopia has been dreamt of for decades. Why now all of a sudden? And fourth, driving is being phased out for economic reasons. They are here: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d1h2Srq0vYs/TssMes1HQ4I/AAAAAAAAADU/cQpC7A94WsQ/s1600/oilprice1947.gif
and here: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/images/public-transit.png
and here: http://econintersect.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/new-car-sales-4-20111.jpg
And for fun, here: http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2010/12/9/driverless-car-of-the-future-1957.html
I know, I know. This time it is different. I’m not saying the technology isn’t possible. But that it is too late. I guess I’m some sort of idiot.
Monday ~ April 2nd, 2012 at 11:47 pm
How we get to computer driven cars | Brucetheeconomist's Blog
[...] How we get to computer driven carsAdam OzimekSun, 01 Apr 2012 23:05:42 GMT Share this:EmailFacebookLike this:LikeBe the first to like this post. This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. ← What we need for economic recovery [...]
Tuesday ~ April 3rd, 2012 at 9:56 pm
Feeds Anarquistas 27 « Libertas ¡!
[...] ¿Qué factores podrían motivarnos a producir autos manejados por computadora? [...]
Wednesday ~ April 4th, 2012 at 6:06 am
reason
Adam,
I don’t think demand is the problem at all. It is liability that is the big issue. (And for some of the elderly deciding and communicating where they want the car to drive them too will be a big issue.)
Wednesday ~ April 4th, 2012 at 4:39 pm
Nikolaos Abatzis
Many times technology adoption does not happen until there is a business case for it, usually having to do with productivity. In the case of autonomous vehicles, the trucking industry could benefit from it, since “tireless” trucks can be driving around without stopping (apart from refueling and service). The postal service, at least in suburban areas can also benefit from autonomous vehicles delivering the mail and placing it in the mostly standardized mailboxes.
Also, please keep in mind that some of these features are already being adopted by car manufacturers, automatic parking (Ford, Lexus?), crossing of lanes, sleepiness (Mercedes, Lexus) and so forth.
Wednesday ~ April 4th, 2012 at 5:08 pm
Morgan Warstler
Low cost taxis with extra weight for drunk drivers and multi-family vehicles will drive the technology as much as elderly car services.
Being able to work during car travel probably increases the choice of car over plane at the margin.
Owning a car goes away for many people, but when you get rid of the driver cost the taxi usage per man increases.
Retro-fitting / aftermarket used cars will likely drive this as it makes
UBER style UX + driverless used car fleet FTW
Thursday ~ April 5th, 2012 at 11:47 am
Sir Algernon
This morning I spent exactly 2 hours in traffic. 2. Now, this is partly my fault for choosing to live in the suburbs- I know the potential costs.
But still, I couldn’t help but dream of the possibility that, if we had computer-driven cars we would either have no traffic or even if I had to spend 2 hours on the highway, I would have spent it doing work and research rather than dozing off at the wheel as my car idled behind thousands of other cars with people dozing off at the wheel, completely unproductive.
Monday ~ April 9th, 2012 at 3:08 am
usefulpcoptimization
I like the blog, and I like your writing style, it’s clear.