Lance Roberts says a bunch of stuff about housing. None of it matters.
The government programs, foreclosures, etc. It all means nothing.
Unless you think there will be a significant rise in homelessness the only thing that matters is formation vs. units.
If someone is for foreclosed on where do they go?
If someone short selling, where do they go?
If I am “waiting for a better” market to sell my house. What exactly am I waiting for? Presumably to buy yet another house or move into some rental.
You can’t look at for sale inventory and think that is telling you a lot because virtually every seller – even REO – represents some buyer of either rental housing or an owner occupied home.
Only changes in formation matter for net demand.
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Monday ~ February 27th, 2012 at 1:48 pm
rortybomb
“If someone is for foreclosed on where do they go?”
My sense is disproportionately into an already-existing household (family, friends), or sometimes homeless. I’d be curious to see actual data on this – I’ll try and find something this week.
Monday ~ February 27th, 2012 at 3:25 pm
Lord
It matters a little. Rental housing is smaller and less expensive to build.
Monday ~ February 27th, 2012 at 3:49 pm
Peter H
Rortybomb,
That would be negative formation.
Karl,
Units of housing is not a fixed variable, and price levels are important determinants of how much new housing is built (or old housing demolished/left to decay)