I predict this graph will make the rounds


I want to make the point that this consistent with my long thesis that we are returning to an environment where productivity gains do not accrue to unskilled labor because they are imbedded in the brains of the innovators.

A factory is really big and hard to keep secret. Computer code less so. When you simply write down the process you want or draw the object you want and the computer translates it for you the seep down will grind to complete halt.

What this chart hides, but I believe is also true is that capital is facing a similar collapse.

At its heart the issue is that Industrialization Really Was Different, and there is no reason to think it will come again.

The reality of this new world is that you cannot simply work hard and make a good living. Nor, should you expect that if you save for your future you can support yourself.

As for now, it is still in the interest of innovators to tap public equity markets and doing so means that they come under some – but not absolute – pressure to pay a dividend.

However, I have a hard time believing this will not come to an end. The money available in private pools will be sufficiently large that innovators can strike side deals that let them walk away with almost all the profits.

Savers will get nothing.

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