Via Annie Lowery
In a call with reporters, Alan Krueger, the chairman of the council, said the recovery had been strengthening even faster than he and other economists expected recently and the report notes that the “sharp drop” in unemployment this winter took them “by surprise.”
Obviously the economy is tracking exactly as I expected and indeed I think has not yet hit its stride which I still expect to come in roughly two to three month’s time.
However, it is interesting to see how consistently surprised the rest of the profession is over these developments.
At this point its hard not to believe that my method of micro-data, macro-narrative doesn’t have some advantages. That is, I look at auto sales, rents, debt-ratios, charge-offs, remodeling permits, etc , but the story I tell is at its heart not about auto sales, its about Marginal Productivity of Capital and the natural rate of interest.
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Saturday ~ February 18th, 2012 at 12:31 am
Avo
Good for you, but once again it calls into question the whole notion of economics as a science if only a tiny fraction of its professionals can properly interpret the data.
Saturday ~ February 18th, 2012 at 7:51 am
Jacob
Do you find levels of wages and vacancies (in aggregate or by industry) to be useful in figuring out what’s going on, or mostly distraction?
Sunday ~ February 19th, 2012 at 7:38 am
Jonathon Hunt
Brag much?
Tuesday ~ February 21st, 2012 at 2:49 am
World’s Apart: Alan Krueger & Modeled Behavior « M. Ulric Killion's space
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