Via Annie Lowery

In a call with reporters, Alan Krueger, the chairman of the council, said the recovery had been strengthening even faster than he and other economists expected recently and the report notes that the “sharp drop” in unemployment this winter took them “by surprise.”

Obviously the economy is tracking exactly as I expected and indeed I think has not yet hit its stride which I still expect to come in roughly two to three month’s time.

However, it is interesting to see how consistently surprised the rest of the profession is over these developments.

At this point its hard not to believe that my method of micro-data, macro-narrative doesn’t have some advantages. That is, I look at auto sales, rents, debt-ratios, charge-offs, remodeling permits, etc , but the story I tell is at its heart not about auto sales, its about Marginal Productivity of Capital and the natural rate of interest.

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