So, despite my repeated attempts to drill a deep pessimism into my readers lots of my commenters still take my attitude about the future as Cassandra-ism.
Indeed, it’s the exact opposite. If I had to yoke with someone more famous I would pick Camus, though – and perhaps you laugh – I find much of his words a quasi-optimistic copout.
Suicide is fully rationally and consistent with our (the black-black existentialist) stated views on absurdity. One can embrace simply by saying: I am viscerally afraid to die. I viscerally long for the morrow. None of this makes any sense.
Yet, when I open my eyes the question “So, what now” is imposed on me by simply being a conscious being. And, so we love the moments not because there is any sense to it or because we have escaped or transcended absurdity in anyway, but simply because we are therefore, why not.
Still, if not rebellion per se we can seek insight. Again, for no other reason than that we are and we wish. And, yes formal ethics is a game we choose or choose not to play. I prefer the terminology, table we wish to sit at or not, because I do not like the English language connotation of “game.”
As I said to Bryan Caplan in our debate, there simply is no response to “I don’t want to play this game” That is, to say if you don’t wish to sit at this table then that’s the end of the conversation. We can and Bryan and I did, go for drinks.
In any case, to the events of the day.
Understanding that things won’t work out in the end helps you take a more level headed approach to things that are happening now.
For example, both Megan and Kelly were taken aback at my attitude on long run fiscal issues. There are a lot of levels of disagreement, different with each, but key is that I push this line of reasoning:
- That we cannot as individuals or as a state afford everything we would like is simply scarcity and is the furniture of our world.
- If we are lucky we will have the choice to kick-the-can-down the-road.
- Kicking-the-can-down-the-road is of its nature preferable because bad things now are worse than bad things later.
- There is some price to can kicking but before I endorse increasing the suffering of actual existent people I would need at least an argument as to why that price is high.
- “Being responsible” is not an argument. Its an attempt to display high status
- In actual fact the claims of long term calamity are overblown. Calamity usually comes swift by its nature and for reasons I can go into later.
My case in point on this is Greece. Greece’s “insolvency” was handled extremely poorly. Its an example of folks choosing policy that makes almost everyone poorer and the poor relatively.
Nonetheless, lets see what happened when sudden austerity comes clamping down.
At least 45 buildings were burned, including one of the capital’s oldest cinemas, while dozens of stores and cafes were smashed and looted.
The stench of tear gas still hung in the air on Monday morning, choking passers-by. More than 120 people were hurt in the rioting which also broke out in other Greek cities. Authorities said 68 police needed medical care after being injured by gasoline bombs, rocks and other objects hurled at them, while at least 70 protesters were also hospitalized.
Police arrested at least 67 people, while in several cases they had to escort fire crews to burning buildings after protesters prevented access.
This is not exactly civilization ending stuff.
The precautionary principle has yet to show its merit.
Ordinary Optimal Control still wins the day.
As a note, I know some people will find this all confusing because you can’t tell whose side I am on. My point is beyond all that.
My point is that the entire paradigm is wrong. There is no “we just have to” either for reigning in spending or maintaining the welfare state. Nor have there been any consequences so discontinuous as to be approximated by “we just have to.”
What do you think you want to do?
That’s the public finance question.

9 comments
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Monday ~ February 13th, 2012 at 10:21 am
Curt Doolittle
Good post.
But it’s false. You cannot make that assessment without understanding WHY we have the civilization, country, institutions and norms that we have today, and why others do NOT have them. Why they have had them and lost them? Why they choose not to have them. And why they are prohibited from having them by their institutions and norms.
Norms and institutions have a momentum. They are not a force of gravity: cet. par., we do not maintain position, we live in ignorance and poverty. No synthetic historian disagrees. Like Camus, they only provide different excuses so that we can tolerate the death of our way of life, in the same manner which we invent magian causality in order to tolerate our own deaths.
You take too much for granted. It is in taking all those issues for granted, that you a) export risk onto those of us with longer time preferences. b) transfer from us and our preferences to you and your preferences using the coercive state rather than voluntary exchange. This is an expropriation and nothing more.
If you were to pursue your value judgments through voluntary means (even if the state were to enforce a voluntary equilibrium) then there could be a trade off between long and short time preferences. However, by advocating short time preferences by force of government, you force a conflict by which each side can only escalate in both rhetoric and policy.
This was the insight of the British model, and of the Classical model. Instead of adding a house for the proletariat once they were able to consume as if they were the middle class, we handed the entire edifice over to them via democracy, and created a set of institutions that mandated a battle between statists and corporatists that cannot possible come to resolution except by suicide: Camus addresses philosophy from the religio-personal perspective. He asks the right question. But that question only exists outside of the political domain. The first question of politics is “why don’t I just kill you and take your stuff?” The second question of politics that follows from that answer is “How then do we compromise on transfers?” The third question of politics is then “how do we not commit systemic suicide quite by accident”. You did not take Camus far enough. Thats forgivable. We have spent more time on epistemically simplistic personal reflection than on empirically complex political institutions.
(Accidentally have a Becker-Posner thing going on here…not my intention. But that said, I have hope for you. And a lot of affection. You’re the rare intellectually honest man. The first principle of debate is the assumption of honesty of inquiry if not agreement upon means and ends. Without that assumption all debate may be informative to observers, but it is purely eristic in achievement. -Curt )
Monday ~ February 13th, 2012 at 11:50 am
Becky Hargrove
Okay, I get it. I finally got out of bed this morning and found you really depressed. So before I wade through all the existentialism, I just want to remind you that you, along with some other brave souls in the economics blogosphere are trying to make a better world. In the process, the group of you are slowly but surely changing the definition of what it means to be an economist. There is a chance that in the process people may come to look at economists as go-to figures who can align various (seemingly opposed)factions in society to effect change for the future. Now, I will finish reading your recent entries.
Monday ~ February 13th, 2012 at 12:04 pm
Becky Hargrove
5) Being responsible is not an attempt to display high status. Let me explain. Sometimes we reach a point in our lives where we feel as though almost everyone we have ever known has either abandoned us, or we can no longer be with them. Nonetheless, even though we have little remaining affection for them, we still have feelings for humanity. That is responsibility. What is the difference, you might ask? Because I still had feelings for humanity, that pushed responsibility back into my being. If I had contempt for everyone else and humanity as well, I would have just gone out and started robbing people, when I was homeless. And believe me at one point I gave it some serious thought.
Monday ~ February 13th, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Becky Hargrove
As to Greece, this is why I desparately try to find ways to talk to liberal and progressive who think that the word libertarian is dirty and evil. I do not want anyone to have to live with such austerity that desroys, but to find the wealth that is hidden in plain sight. As a former librarian and bookseller, the image (or possibility) of burning libraries has haunted me for decades.
Monday ~ February 13th, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Axel
Could we say that, barring apocalyptic thinking, being responsible would be to try to avoid Greek austerity situation – which we all know can happen ?
In such respect, kicking the can up-the-road should be avoided (ie. what former Greek politicians did before crisis) especially as there is little collective cost to that. Being responsible could then be defined as balancing current framework (collective decision making process & resources sharing) preservation and short term happiness improving changes.
My point is that 1) austerity proponents are not really talking about how to manage crisis in crisis time but on how to avoid crisis before it happens. So you’re not talking about the same thing and may be the thing they try to talk about (Time machine) doesn’t exists in the US or in Greece. Moral hazard concept aims to derive incentives to avoid system breach allowing some decentralized decision making.
And 2) if the ‘why not’ question avoids suicide, it’s not enough to avoid dynamic thinking, and uncertain decisions about future states of the world (at collective and individual level). Even if you know ‘things won’t work out’, you are essentially unable to totally discard the future because consciousness is precisely projecting oneself into the uncertain future (not the certain future when we all die, the one happening just before
).
This is the core of absurdity, when you decided to have insight and accepted absurdity, you accepted you cannot think without time and projecting yourself (time and causality are hence tightly linked).
We are going concerns. Therefore, responsibility can mean something quite important: trying to put a limit to the consequence of our (collective) speculative projective thinking.
Tuesday ~ February 14th, 2012 at 1:17 am
mike kent
whoa
Saturday ~ February 18th, 2012 at 3:56 pm
All linky, no thinky « Blunt Object
[...] Notes on life, notes on Greece (Modeled Behavior) Understanding that things won’t work out in the end helps you take a more level headed approach to things that are happening now. [...]
Saturday ~ February 18th, 2012 at 8:29 pm
Jon
The reason the Northern European governments have seemly lost that patience is that the Greeks are burning buildings and there basically hasn’t been any austerity of any kind. To say we’re seeing the effect of Austerity is mind-bending.
They promised to cull 30K civil servant positions; one year in, they haven’t. They promised spending cuts, instead they cooked the books–they stopped paying their suppliers but kept accepting receipt of goods. That charade earned them one big bailout, but then the suppliers came knocking and the money went out the door.
What they have managed to do is pass massive income and property tax increases. Predictably these have slammed the private sector, and everything not fixed to the ground is being moved out of the country. Austerity ha.
Wednesday ~ March 7th, 2012 at 3:01 am
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