Labor force participation has declined the most high school graduates and those with some college. It has actually risen for high school drop outs.
Compare that to the dynamics of the unemployment rate for these groups.
Relatively speaking unemployment grew the least for high school dropouts and may be declining the fastest, though the series is very volatile.
Lasting looking at employment itself.
Here you get the exact opposite effect. The number of employed college graduates has grown while the number of employed high school dropout has shrank.
My off the cuff interpretation was that the economy was shifting towards more and more employment of educated workers, but the growth rate of this shift slowed down.
But that doesn’t seem to be the case
What that would suggest are shifts in the labor pool. The United States is becoming more educated faster than the economy would absorb educated workers.
Though of course this doesn’t comport with our general sense of the evolution of the economy.
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Saturday ~ December 3rd, 2011 at 11:58 am
Tim R
WHO’S!
Saturday ~ December 3rd, 2011 at 12:00 pm
Tim R
(not “whose”)
Saturday ~ December 3rd, 2011 at 12:40 pm
jazzbumpa
What that would suggest are shifts in the labor pool. The United States is becoming more educated faster than the economy would absorb educated workers.
Exactly the opposite of correct. What it actually suggests are changes in the nature of job opportunities. If we are becoming too educated, than the nature of jobs is in decline.
This is very grim, indeed.
Serfs don’t need no education.
JzB
Saturday ~ December 3rd, 2011 at 7:40 pm
Lorenzo from Oz
I would not be so ready to infer structural shifts from cyclical effects.
Saturday ~ December 3rd, 2011 at 11:35 pm
Matt (@MeCampbell30)
FYI, your graphs are too small to read the labels.
Sunday ~ December 4th, 2011 at 8:30 am
Gray, Germany
I suspect that more qualified folks can afford to retire early, and they did in largern than usual numbers, under the impression of a very difficult job market. Less qualified people, with much smaller savings, don’t have that option.
Maybe more detailed data about the age and qualification of those who drop out of the job market would provide evidence of what’s really going on.
Sunday ~ December 4th, 2011 at 1:35 pm
Matt (@MeCampbell30)
Actually the number of employed people 55 and over has been increasing steadily over the last 5 years (maybe more).
The 25 to 54 group saw a sharp decrease during the recession and has remained relatively flat.
This makes sense given the baby boomers are a relatively large group of people (speaking in terms of generations), but that can’t explain it all. Those 55 and up are holding on to their jobs.
Sunday ~ December 4th, 2011 at 8:32 am
Gray, Germany
“The United States is becoming more educated faster than the economy would absorb educated workers.”
Why should it be any different in an economy which focussed on the creation of McJobs, if at all, in the last decade? No surprise at all.
Sunday ~ December 4th, 2011 at 12:42 pm
Casey
…nor does this comport with our general sense of “education.” But, the image of a too-educated cadre of American 22-year olds gave me a nice chuckle.
Sunday ~ December 4th, 2011 at 10:44 pm
Randall Parker (@futurepundit)
Alex Tabarrok pointed out recently that colleges boosted enrollment by 50% while not boosting STEM enrollment at all. So the average usefulness of college grads declined both due to more non-STEM grads and also due to higher labor market demand for STEM grads.
Wednesday ~ December 7th, 2011 at 4:26 am
Economist's View: Demographic Shift?
[...] Given the wide range of ages in this group, it is difficult to apply all of the deterioration to the baby-boomers. Looking across the data, we very much see young people fleeing the labor market. To where? Given the weak labor market this decade, the opportunity cost of education is low, and thus many are continuing their education. Interestingly, Karl Smith looks at the data and concludes: [...]
Wednesday ~ December 7th, 2011 at 7:03 am
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Wednesday ~ December 7th, 2011 at 10:43 pm
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Friday ~ December 9th, 2011 at 10:52 am
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