Karl raises some interesting questions about the morality of bringing someone into existence. These are tough questions, but one group makes it a little easier to narrow the overton window by earnestly putting forth some clearly terrible answers. The group is “Population Matters” and they have some truly egregious views (pdf). For instance consider this argument:
It is also a fact that if two people with two living children have a third child, they will ratchet up the population of the planet, and thus: ratchet up damage to the environment; bring nearer the day of serious ecological failure; and ratchet down everyone else’s share of dwindling natural resources to cope with this. So individual decisions to create a whole extra lifetime of impacts affect everyone else (including their own children) – far more than any other environmentally damaging decision they make. We need to be aware of the ethical implications of having large families; and sex education in schools should include it.
You’ll notice the complete and puzzling lack of productivity in this formulation of scarcity. In this model of the world there is only resources, and they are directly consumed. Imagine, for instance, if your two people with two living children have a third child whose inventions increase the efficiency of solar power by 1%, or increases grain yields, or leads to a new low cost recycling technique. This person coming into existence has clearly increased the amount of output than can be created with the resources on earth. The way Population Matters has formulated the problem of scarcity only makes sense if… well, if you’re determined for some reason to try and argue that more population is a really bad thing.
Another massive problem with their ideas is they’re confused about what coercion means. They state repeatedly they are only for non-coercive policies:
“…the government should state a national goal of stabilising and then reducing UK numbers to a sustainable level, by non-coercive means…”
But when the chair of the group was interviewed here at Grist, he doesn’t shy away from the extremely coercive policy of drastically restricting poor people’s freedom to move to developed countries:
“Half our population growth [in the U.K.] is due to migration, so [we advocate] balanced migration to stabilize that — no more in than out. “
So they don’t want to coerce anyone except when it comes to their decision about where to live. And they’re not for coercive policies except the one that prevent more wealth creation than perhaps any other.
The interview ends with this puzzling appeal to doing things “the nice way”:
“On a finite planet, we know for a fact that indefinite growth in anything physical is physically impossible. So physical consumption of resources per person and the number of consumers will quite definitely stop at some point. It will either be sooner, the nice way, through fewer births, or later, the nasty way, through more deaths. But there is no third alternative.”
One wonders if they are completely blind to the reality that preventing people in poor countries from immigrating to better lives in developed nations is probably not seen as “the nice way” from their perspective. Or are they just that stunningly indifferent to their well-being?

22 comments
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Friday ~ October 28th, 2011 at 1:02 am
Rick Russell
It amazes me how quickly the facades of “equal rights” and “reduce crippling income inequality” are blown to pieces as soon as you mention immigration.
> Or are they just that stunningly indifferent to their well-being?
Ding.
Friday ~ October 28th, 2011 at 8:54 am
Adam Ozimek
You’re exactly right Rick.
Friday ~ October 28th, 2011 at 1:34 am
Sister Y
Both you and Bryan Caplan seem willing to trade off very uncertain, speculative, indirect effects (inventions, etc.) of population against the direct, quite certain physical effects. Why do speculative positive effects matter more than definite negative effects? Or do you think the negative effects are somehow themselves speculative? Is the reality of scarcity of important stuff really in question?
Also, your connection between having the third child and inventions seems to imply causation from population to nice inventions (which Caplan also assumes). What evidence supports the theory that population drives innovation in a significant, reliable way? It seems the global distribution of both innovation and population would call that relationship into doubt.
(Agree with you on immigration though.)
Friday ~ October 28th, 2011 at 8:32 am
Adam Ozimek
I’m only trying to rule out a wrong idea here, not do a complete analysis of the ethics of bringing someone into being. I don’t think all the direct effects of being born are negative.
To me the population-invention connection seems obvious, at least at the population margins we’ll face anytime in the next hundred years.
Friday ~ October 28th, 2011 at 12:48 pm
Sister Y
Just looking at the distribution of patents or Nobel prizes, it seems there are dozens of variables that correlate better with these than population. Are you talking U.S. only, or is this also supposed to apply to Brazil and China and Kenya and India and Israel equally?
Friday ~ October 28th, 2011 at 3:18 am
Curt Doolittle
RE: “You…. seem willing to trade off very uncertain, speculative, indirect effects … of population against the direct, quite certain physical effects…. Why do speculative positive effects matter more than definite negative effects? ”
Because it’ suits their religious, political, unscientific, historically inaccurate viewpoint.
Increases in human productivity may be widely distributed, but they are narrowly created by the consumption of energy, and it’s application to all manner of technologies. However, the RATE AT WHICH we can increase that power is limited.
They’re operating on FAITH.
Friday ~ October 28th, 2011 at 8:53 am
Adam Ozimek
I don’t know how you can say “Increases in human productivity… are narrowly created by the consumption of energy” when so many productivity increases come as the result of energy saving technologies.
Friday ~ October 28th, 2011 at 3:47 am
Tel
When you say, “they don’t want to coerce anyone except when it comes to their decision about where to live” this is essentially the same as the “property rights are coercion” argument. So if I own a jumper to keep warm, is it coercion for me to prevent anyone else taking it off my back so they can keep warm? Or is it coercion for them to take it from me?
Similarly, if I own a plot of land, is it coercion for me to live there and occupy the land when other people would like to push me off and occupy it themselves?
In context of immigration, if a nation state cannot defend its borders by use of force then you do not have a government anymore, you do not have a nation state at all. Is that where you guys want to go with this? We could just say that as a nation we relinquish all ownership of land and no longer secure the borders… but the result would be initially that no one bothers to work the land anymore, and finally that some other people would come and displace us to take the land for themselves.
Friday ~ October 28th, 2011 at 8:50 am
Adam Ozimek
You’ve moved from “all immigration restrictions are coercion” to “no immigration restrictions” are justified. Coercion can be justified in some cases, but in those cases it’s silly to pretend that what is happening is not in fact coercion. I can’t imagine how someone would watch an INS raid where people are dragged out of their homes and kicked out of the country and say “nope, this isn’t coercion”.
Friday ~ October 28th, 2011 at 10:44 am
Johnnie Linn
That’s not where Tel has moved. He hasn’t moved. He has made only one post. You have moved. You started by not liking that Population Matters believes coercion should be used in some cases but not others. Now you say that coercion should be used in some cases and not others.
Friday ~ October 28th, 2011 at 11:53 am
Rick Russell
Adam may not want to go there, but I will. Just as globalization has increased productivity and raised all ships across the globe, labor mobility could do the same. The place you are born is truly an arbitrary marker to carry with you for the rest of your life; people should be able to go where they are needed, without worrying about an emblem on a passport.
When nation-states compete over borders, people die and crops wither on the vine. When nation-states compete to create the best possible environment for creation of wealth, everyone wins. It’s the surest way to “raise all ships”.
Friday ~ October 28th, 2011 at 11:30 am
Wonks Anonymous
On twitter you had a dispute about whether the threat of force constitutes coercion. I think by ordinary language it does, but there’s also a very meaningful difference between threats that aren’t carried out and the actual use of force. Thomas Schelling would say that the best threats are those which are never carried out, and both the threatener and threatened are in an adversarial game in which both would ideally prefer for the threat not to be carried out. Property rights can seem arbitrary, but if accepted then little force needs to be used relative to a situation where we go around grabbing the stuff others already claimed dibs on.
Friday ~ October 28th, 2011 at 12:02 pm
Michael
I feel compelled to point out that, regardless of productivity, the excerpt you quote is factually incorrect (or more precisely, unknowable).
A couple having a third child does NOT by necessity ratchet up the population. Other couple have no children whatsoever, indeed they’re incapable of having any. Still others only have one.
If you start from such a false premise, then, of course, your conclusion is going to be wrong.
Friday ~ October 28th, 2011 at 12:50 pm
Sister Y
So voting has no moral consequence either?
Friday ~ October 28th, 2011 at 1:01 pm
Michael
I’m not sure I understand how the question relates to the idea their conclusion doesn’t follow from their premise.
Friday ~ October 28th, 2011 at 1:57 pm
Sister Y
You seem to be saying that because the individual decision to reproduce does not guarantee the aggregate population outcome, it has no moral consequence.
If one believed that, one could argue that voting has no moral consequence, because the individual’s vote doesn’t guarantee the final outcome.
Friday ~ October 28th, 2011 at 2:01 pm
Sister Y
Ditto conservation efforts, not littering, being vegetarian, not beating people up, and almost anything else I can think of. Just because you can’t guarantee the final result doesn’t mean you don’t have an obligation to avoid contributing to a bad result.
Friday ~ October 28th, 2011 at 2:47 pm
Michael
No, I’m saying that person cannot meaningfully judge another’s actions as positive/negative, to the extent the other’s action contributes to some aggregate the person finds undesirable, without knowing the net effect of that person’s actions.
Friday ~ October 28th, 2011 at 5:09 pm
Sister Y
Okay, but isn’t the net effect always +1 in the case of reproduction?
Saturday ~ October 29th, 2011 at 3:58 pm
Rick Russell
Sister Y, are you being facetious? His point is that, even if you buy into the idea that net population growth is a bad thing, you only have a moral problem if your actions result in net population growth.
If there are 100 cupcakes, and 50 people decided to take 1 cupcake and 49 people decide to take no cupcakes, then there are no negative moral implications if the 100th person decided to take 2, 3 or 5 cupcakes. There are ample cupcakes.
Now, you could argue, if person 100 doesn’t know how many cupcakes the others will take, they should be conservative, sure. But they may have statistical data to indicate that the cupcake allocation will be ample, or whatever. It’s not automatically immoral to take a little extra.
Tuesday ~ November 1st, 2011 at 11:21 am
Sister Y
The idea that having babies doesn’t increase population because everyone else in the world might magically decide to stop breeding strikes me as a piece of Orwellian arithmetic.
Friday ~ October 28th, 2011 at 1:45 pm
govt_mule
“if your two people…have a third child whose inventions increase the efficiency of solar power by 1%, or increases grain yields, or leads to a new low cost recycling technique…[this person] has clearly increased the amount of output than can be created”
While a new child or immigrant might be the next Einstein or Brin, he’s far more likely to be a gang-banger, serial killer, derivatives trader, or other negative contributor to society.