This month the manufacturing survey’s improved. In particular the gut wrenching Philly Fed number from last month (-30) improved to severe indigestion (-17) this month.

This marks four consecutive months of weakening or weak manufacturing surveys. This is deeply disconcerting as movements in the goods producing industries remain the primary source of macroeconomic fluctuation, even in our de-industrializing economy.

Retail Sales have also yet to recover from the Summer Slowdown

FRED Graph 

However, at the same time many of my really core numbers look more promising. Used car prices are rising. Rents are rising. Hotel Occupancy is rising.

Inventories are light and getting lighter and will trend lighter based on the latest data.

 FRED Graph

Business lending is picking up.

FRED Graph

I still the the domestic economy looks ready to move. The biggest threat is to imports.

However, as I mentioned much earlier its not clear to me how the a euro crisis nets out for the US. A decline in exports should be matched by a strong decline in gas prices.

Advertisement