I’ve seen some chatter over whether or not Social Security is a Ponzi Scheme. I think this is mostly a debate over nothing.
What is at issue is that the term “Ponzi Scheme” sounds bad and has poor affect. Some people wish to attach this to the Social Security system and some people wish to divorce it from the Social Security system.
However, is there really any disagreement over the actual mechanics of the systems? What the thing itself is apart from how you feel about the words used to describe it?
I don’t think there is.
However, one thing that does seem to be missing from the conversation is the importance of the concept of claim.
What makes investing in stocks or or bonds or participating in Social Security different from chain letters is that with the chain letter you have no claim. You are hoping that people will continue this process and give you back the money you put in.
With the other vehicles you can use the force of the state to compel people to give you back the money you put it. This is what I am calling “claim.”
Absent state intervention there is nothing stopping me from selling you stock in a company and then skipping town and spending all of your money. There is nothing stopping me from selling you a bond and then using the money to buy hookers and cocaine. Indeed, more than a little of this has been known to happen.
However, under a system of financial rules and regulation the state steps in to (1) attempt to prevent me from doing that in the first place. (2) Seize my assets if I do (3) attempt to repay claimants any monies they are owed.
Now, schemes like the one Bernie Madoff started are particularly hard to deal with because he is telling investors that their claims are growing when indeed they are not. So even though the state can come and try to get your money back from Bernie, it can’t get the claim you thought you had because it never existed in the first place.
Bernie just wrote down on a sheet a paper: you earned 20% return last year. But, nothing actually happened. It was just a sheet a paper. This is known as a lie.
In contrast the companies which comply with SEC regulations have existing claims, so there is a much better chance of getting your claim fulfilled.
Social Security likewise has an existing claim. Now because the claim both comes from the state and is enforced by the state you run into the problem of the state simply deciding that it does not want to enforce your claim. This is known as a benefit cut.
However, so long as the state wants to enforce your claim it clearly has the means to do so. It can forcibly extract resources from its citizenry to make good on its promises. This is called taxes.
Since the United States has not and is not close to exhausting its power of taxation there is no threat to the claim of Social Security besides the state deciding that it no longer wants to enforce it.
The thing to remember, however, is that, that is the fundamental issue: does the state want to enforce this claim or not. If it wants to it clearly can. If it doesn’t want to, then no one can make it do so.
So to the extent there is something to argue about, what you want to argue about is “do we want to continue to enforce this claim.”
Now, being all politically determinist and whatnot, I am going to tell you that no such choice actually exists. You will enforce this claim. Attempts to avoid it are futile. However, I understand that, that perspective is no fun.
Nonetheless, if we are going to argue we should at least be arguing about the core issue and not semantics and affect.

15 comments
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Sunday ~ September 11th, 2011 at 10:30 am
Patrick
As always with determinism of human behavior though, political determinism madates the fight as well as the result. Among other reasons, because the result is not clear to all agents.
Sunday ~ September 11th, 2011 at 11:01 am
Johnnie Linn
Here is a quote from the SEC’s web page about prosecution of Ponzi schemes:
“The SEC investigates and prosecutes many Ponzi scheme cases each year both to prevent new victims from being harmed and to maximize the recovery of assets to investors.”
So victims of Ponzi schemes do have “claims”, both criminal and civil. The claims against a Ponzi scheme are in fact stronger than those against Social Security because the perpetrators of a Ponzi scheme know they will have both civil and criminal liability while those who renege on a promise to pay benefits will have neither!
Monday ~ September 12th, 2011 at 9:59 am
Gepap
Criminal cases are always conducted by the State. Investors in a Ponzi scheme have NO criminal “claim” as private citizens.
You also seem to misunderstand the notion of claim here. Someone lying to investors has no power to force some other party to pony up the funds to meet the promises he has made. A company on the up and up can bring forth civil suits in court, that is their claim. And the State can always take everything you have to meet its promises.
Monday ~ September 12th, 2011 at 10:11 am
Johnnie Linn
From legaldictionary the freedictionary dot com:
“A criminal complaint must state the facts that constitute the offense and must be supported by Probable Cause. It may be initiated by the victim, a police officer, the district attorney, or another interested party.”
Monday ~ September 12th, 2011 at 1:14 pm
Gepap
A private citizen may initiate a criminal complaint, but the case is made by the State, on behalf of the people. Nice try, though.
Monday ~ September 12th, 2011 at 1:58 pm
Johnnie Linn
A private citizen may initiate a civil complaint, but the case is made through the State, on behalf of the private citizen. Nice try, though.
Sunday ~ September 11th, 2011 at 11:32 am
Todd
It sounds to me like you are saying that the United States can and will increase taxes to raise the revenue necessary to meet the promises that have been made. This suggests that you think that you do not think the magnitude of those promises is such that will make it difficult to actually meet them, but clearly at some point, the magnitude would be problematic in which case it would not be a matter of “you will enforce this claim” but a question of “can you enforce this claim” i.e. do enough resources actually exist to satisfy the obligation. Perhaps the people accusing SS of being a Ponzi scheme believe that we are closer to the 2nd situation than the first. Where do you think we fall in the continuum from “easy to meet the demands” to “impossible to meet the demands”?
Sunday ~ September 11th, 2011 at 11:33 am
Blue cat
If you’re interested I describe the essential differences between a Ponzi scheme and Social Security here
Sunday ~ September 11th, 2011 at 12:21 pm
Curt Doolittle
Nope. That didn’t do it Karl. Good sketch. But that doesn’t do it.
1) Q: At what point does risk-mitigation become redistribution? A: When it’s reasonably certain. It’s reasonably certain everyone is going to collect social security. (It’s reasonably certain that they will spend half of our collective health care dollars on experimental procedures, and extending the last year of life.)
2) Q: At what point is an investment a fraud? A: When the seller lies to the buyer about the probability of obtaining his returns. (this is the hard part to guess.) We dont’ have enough payers in social security who are willing to support recipients. THAT is what makes social security a ponzi scheme: we need increasing population with increasing productivity or the cost paid by the old, is far lower than the cost paid by the young. (We don’t have the data to test it. We haven’t been at it long enough. So no one knows one way or the other.)
3) Q: At what point is it impossible to pay for Social Security. A: That point is determined POLITICALLY by demographic changes. So the government is making a promise that the people don’t have to keep. There is no such thing as “government wants this or that” as you propose. Government is people. People who get shoved into office. (Here is your desire for totalitarianism creeping up again.)
FIXED INPUTS AND VARIABLE OUTPUTS PLEASE
You can have social security as long as inputs are fixed and outputs are variable. you cannot have social security where outputs are fixed and inputs are variable. That will avoid moral hazards. (yes, you might say that benefit increases and cuts are variable, but then that would be misleading, wouldn’t it? Tongue in cheek reference to the fact that it’s fraud.)
The only way to accomplish your objective is to force saving on one end (so it’s measurable), and force insurance on the other (social security taxes). Then graduate people out of the insurance scheme and into the investment scheme as they accumulate enough wealth. (Which is what libertarians have been advising … well. Since Friedman.)
Although, you might want to remember that people don’t trust their government because they no longer have a community of common interest.
Curt
Monday ~ September 12th, 2011 at 10:07 am
Gepap
1) Social Security HAS ALWAYS BEEN REDISTRIBUTION! That is the point of an old age pension – provide some income to those who can no longer work so they don’t die in the street or starve. Period, point, blank.
2) Social Security is NOT an investment. People pay money in, that money goes out to pay pensioners. The underlying “investment” is the entire economy under the soverign power of the United States government. And what is needed in increased production, not even population growth. We have less farmers than we did in 1900, but vastly greater farm production, and the huge drop in the number of farmers has not led to any dearth in food. As long as production can increase, mainly through automation, we can provide the claims on that product necessary to provide the life needs of the retired. It is a distribution issue, not a production issue. A form of old age pensions can survive as long as there is the political will.
3) Social Security is only politically unviable if the owners of production refuse to change the distribution scheme because they believe they aren’t getting their due. The masses of course have thwe power to liquidate them, in the most extreme circumstance.
Social Security works for everyone but those on the top, which is why they attack it so. Too bad they have brainwashed the masses to buy their crap.
Thursday ~ September 29th, 2011 at 2:16 pm
Curt Doolittle
Which one of us is not understanding the argument Karl is making?
I sometimes answer too quickly, but I don’t think it’s me this time.
Sunday ~ September 11th, 2011 at 2:09 pm
Lord
Another difference, and the primary one to me, is whether it is designed or modifiable to succeed or doomed to fail. Paygo schemes are designed or modifiable to succeed and Social Security can succeed. That doesn’t mean changes aren’t necessary as demographics change and growth change, but changes can and will be made to sustain it, as they are to any business or institution. Ponzi schemes can only succeed if money can be printed without end and even that cannot really be considered success.
How much any generation will obtain from it, the real return on their investment, will always change. The idea that anyone is guaranteed it, entitled to it, or has any real alternative to it, is imaginary. Privatization and investment cannot solve the real return problem. What causes falling Social Security returns also causes falling private returns. This is often identified as an intergenerational problem, but it is actually an intragenerational problem. The elderly have assets to sell and benefits to receive and the more benefits they receive the less they will be able to obtain from selling their assets. The less the young receive on their Social Security taxes, the less they will have to pay for their investments. That is why accommodation is possible.
Sunday ~ September 11th, 2011 at 7:23 pm
Rick
The “claim” here, for most workers under 45 who pay little attention to the mechanics of Social Security, is that it will afford them a quality of life in retirement similar to the one it affords their parents or grandparents. If demographic of GDP growth path changes prevent this from occurring without consistently increasing the tax burden on subsequent generations, then it is a Ponzi scheme. As Curt said, if the contribution and not the benefit was defined, and it was crystal clear to people that this was the case, the claim would be viable.
Monday ~ September 12th, 2011 at 12:00 am
Ponzi Schemes, Social and Otherwise « Economics Info
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Monday ~ September 12th, 2011 at 12:40 am
Lord
Social Security will provide that benefit though. It is the rest of their assets that won’t. Social Security can’t do anything about economic regression. Politically that may be modified to provide less in Social Security and offer more in asset values, but that won’t be the fault of Social Security but of the economy.