Publically I have remained steadfast in my insistence that a deal would get done, or worst coming to worst the President would invoke the 14th Amendment to avert a crisis. There will be no default I said.

I will admit now though that at the dinner table I confessed to my extended family that I saw a perhaps one percent or more chance that a default would occur. And, of course a one percent chance on such matters is something to lose serious sleep over.

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