Texas manufacturing survey comes in a bit lower than I would have hoped but moving in the right direction. From the Dallas Fed
Texas factory activity expanded in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 5.6 to 10.8, suggesting output growth picked up this month.
Other measures of current manufacturing conditions also indicated growing activity, and the pace of new orders increased. The shipments index rose to a reading of 7.8 after coming in at zero last month. The capacity utilizationindex was positive but remained near zero, indicating little change over the prior month. The new orders index rose sharply from 6.4 in June to 16 in July. Thirty-four percent of firms said order volumes increased this month, the highest share since November 2010.
Expectations regarding future business conditions were generally more optimistic in July. The indexes of future general business activity and future company outlook edged up this month after trending down in the first half of the year. Several indexes of future manufacturing activity, including production, rose in July while others edged down but remained in solid positive territory.
My thesis remains that we saw temporary disruptions in an otherwise upward trend. I also remain confident that the debt shenanigans will but overcome before they wreak any real damage. Consequently I looking for a fair pick-up in growth by the end of the year.
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Monday ~ July 25th, 2011 at 2:38 pm
rjs
http://www.newsneconomics.com/2011/07/economists-are-terrible-forecasters.html
Friday ~ July 29th, 2011 at 2:22 pm
WellRed
I am intrigued to know whether today’s news has altered your thesis in any meaningful way. The economy was at its slowest in a quarter that largely would not have reflected the manufacturing slowdown which resulted from the Japanese earthquake.
Are you taking heart from the expansion case remaining intact, or is there a different dynamic at play here? Certainly you must be revising down expectations for Q2..