A while back my co-blogger Adam took a stand against the anti-salt crusaders. In general the state of knowledge about healthy behaviors is fairly low. Pretty much all of us agree that activity is generally good for the cardiovascular system. Pretty much all of us agree that trans-fatty acids are likely bad for the cardiovascular system. We all agree that you need vitamins as well as fatty acids and essential proteins to survive.
I think the agreement pretty much ends there.
Even on issues like smoking and lung cancer – which the vast majority of people consider a closed case – has smart reasonable people arguing the other side. And, admittedly it is damn hard to find a randomized controlled trial that supports the notion that smoking causes lung cancer.
I say that not to cast doubt on the connection between smoking and lung cancer but just to show how hard it is to get any result in the field behavioral health. No one is going to let you forcibly subject human beings to long term exposure to something you believe to be deadly. Thus, scientific progress requires careful inference and is mind numbingly slow.
All that having been said here is the latest on salt courtesy of Huffpost HT to Mrs. Modeled Behavior
In an analysis that set off a fierce debate over the health effects of salt, researchers said on Wednesday they had found no evidence that small cuts to salt intake reduce the risk of developing heart disease or dying prematurely.
In a systematic review published by The Cochrane Library, British scientists found that while cutting salt consumption did appear to lead to slight reductions in blood pressure, that was not translated into lower death or heart disease risk.
The researchers said they suspected the trials conducted so far were not big enough to show any benefits to heart health, and called for large-scale studies to be carried out soon.
Perhaps larger scale studies will yield results. However, the same argument was made about fat and when the newer, larger scale study was done it came out with ziltch. The response was that a study that large could not possibly have the controls necessary to find an effect.
None of this is to say that there isn’t an effect in either case but we should be clear that the evidence is sorely lacking and that public health authorities have been bordering on dishonest about these issues.
I am always one to be skeptical about conspiracy theories but in this case I think the motivation and method used to promote the conspiracy are clear: people thought they were saving lives. Its hard to get people to band together into some giant united effort at deception but the idea that you are saving the world is one of the few things that can do it.
Unfortunately that type of zeal blinds folks to the data.
The salt case was riddled with issues from the start. Not least of which was that there was no real theory here. It is clear that salt could increase blood volume and thereby temporarily raise blood pressure. However, proponents of the salt theory were suggesting that permanent hypertension would result and from the start it was never exactly clear why this should be the case.
This happens shockingly often in medicine and health.

6 comments
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Wednesday ~ July 6th, 2011 at 7:08 pm
q
i don’t think you read the study. it said:
End of trial systolic and diastolic BPs were reduced by an average of some 1mmHg in normotensives and by an average of 2–4mmHg in hypertensives and those with heart failure. Sustained longterm reductions of BP of 1 and 4mmHg would be predicted to reduce CVD mortality by 5% and 20%, respectively.
Our point estimates are consistent with effects of this size but have wide CIs owing to the relatively small numbers of events.
Wednesday ~ July 6th, 2011 at 10:10 pm
Jeff
To be honest, I find this to be a rather bizarre post from you guys. First of all, exactly how many “randomized controlled trials” have there been in macroeconomics, or even micro outside of behavioral econ (which I gather you guys aren’t big on)? I recall a post by Adam in which he rationalizes/justifies this by arguing that experiments don’t prove anything and that science should rely on mathematical modeling instead. Furthermore, many posts on this blog (although fewer by you) are bereft of data. Your guys’ libertarian “zeal” often seems to me to be “blind[ing you] to the data”. Just earlier today you wrote that you know of data suggesting that raising the minimum wage did not have substantial impacts on employment, but that you don’t believe it anyway, because it conflicts with your theory. Economists give out plenty of free advice about how the country should be managed and whatever the merits of this advice may be, I suspect they truly believe that their public statements, if followed, will make the country better, if not “save the world”. Matthew 7:5 comes to mind here…
Wednesday ~ July 6th, 2011 at 10:20 pm
Jeff
ooops, sorry, I meant the less harsh version, Matthew 7:3
Wednesday ~ July 6th, 2011 at 11:56 pm
I’ll Take Everything with a Grain of Salt | Brucetheeconomist's Blog
[...] The Latest on Salt: Cochrane Reviews Finds Little to No Harm Karl Smith Wed, 06 Jul 2011 22:25:07 GMT [...]
Thursday ~ July 7th, 2011 at 10:07 am
teageegeepea
Didn’t Gary Taubes go after the anti-salt folks too? I don’t think it became his prominent as his critique of the anti-fat but carb-tolerant scientists.
Thursday ~ July 7th, 2011 at 12:27 pm
Shangwen
From the study’s summary: “Our meta-analysis demonstrates that a modest reduction in salt intake for a duration of 4 or more weeks has a significant and, from a population viewpoint, important effect on blood pressure in both individuals with normal and elevated blood pressure. These results support other evidence suggesting that a modest and long-term reduction in population salt intake could reduce strokes, heart attacks, and heart failure. Furthermore, our meta-analysis demonstrates a correlation between the magnitude of salt reduction and the magnitude of blood pressure reduction. Within the daily intake range of 3 to 12 g/day, the lower the salt intake achieved, the lower the blood pressure.”
http://www2.cochrane.org/reviews/en/ab004937.html