From the BLS

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in May after increasing 0.1 percent in March and 0.2 percent in April. The shelter index rose 0.2 percent in May after increasing 0.1 percent in each of the seven previous months. Both rent and owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.1 percent; the acceleration in shelter was due to the index for lodging away from home, which rose 2.9 percent in May after being unchanged in April.

Increases in the shelter component looked baked into the pipeline to me. Hotels occupancy is rising. The number of living units has not kept pace with population. The number of residential starts is at record lows. Inflation in shelter is coming.

Now I think we should be returning to trend in prices so this doesn’t bother me, but I don’t want everyone to be freaked when core inflation rises over the next 12 months like it was some out of the blue, everything has changed phenomenon. We are not building enough housing and that is going to drive up rents.

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