Ezra Klein has a post where he calls the balanced budged constitutional amendment Republicans are pushing and calls it both terrible policy and dangerous. I haven’t read the actual amendment or taken a close look at it, but based on Ezra’s description I’m tempted to agree with him. But that’s not why I’m writing. I’m writing because I want to disagree with this statement of his:
But the problem isn’t simply that the proposed amendment is extreme. It’s also unworkable. The baby boomers are retiring and health costs are rising. Unless you have a way to stop one or the other from happening — and no one does — spending as a percentage of GDP is going to have to rise.
While economists may disagree about the fiscal impacts of past immigration, there is a general agreement that higher skilled immigrants have a positive impact on government budgets. Part of our long-term budget problem is demographic, so, as Rick Santorum so usefully implied, we should be letting in more immigrants who are on average younger in order to counteract our country’s aging (that was Santorum’s intended point, right?). Also, more immigrants also allow us to spread the fixed defense costs over a more people, and lower defense spending as a percent of GDP. Illegal immigrants are even better from a budgetary standpoint, since they frequently contribute to social security but don’t take out of it, and have thus put around $120 to $240 billion into the system. So what we really need is a massive influx of highly skilled illegal immigrants.

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Friday ~ April 1st, 2011 at 7:24 pm
Johnnie Linn
Ezra Klein’s objections to recession effects can be overcome by making the amendment apply to a seven-to-ten-year moving average budget instead on an annual budget.
What is bothersome about the amendment is the GDP requirement. If the GDP requirement is to work, we will have to have a constitutionally-mandated definition of GDP. Otherwise, the definition of GDP will be changed as necessary, probably by some unelected entity, to evade the budget constraints.
We have managed to have a reasonably uncluttered federal Constitution until now. Keep any changes as simple as possible.
Saturday ~ April 2nd, 2011 at 10:01 am
Bernie
Thank you. There are too few people discussing immigration. Everyone wants to limit the debate to taxes or spending, but I think you have the right solution.
Saturday ~ April 2nd, 2011 at 3:11 pm
Suvi
Ha! You can either have ‘Highly skilled’ or have ‘Illegal’ immigrants.
This is coming from a ‘highly skilled’ temporary worker (H1B), who decided to pack his bags and return home after 7 years, contributing to US social security, but will not be getting any of that back.
Like money, skilled people will go to where they are respected.
Sunday ~ April 3rd, 2011 at 1:11 am
AirmanSpryShark
Balanced budget: rather than balanced for the fiscal year, the amendment could merely prohibit appropriations in a given fiscal year in excess of the average of the previous year’s appropriations & tax revenues. Over the long term, revenues equal appropriations, but it at least dampens pro-cyclicality. The government expenditure share of GDP (regardless of definition) would be inherently limited by the share of GDP which can actually be sustainably captured by taxation, and wouldn’t need to be treated explicitly.
Immigration & entitlements: a simpler reform would be to continue to levy payroll taxes on even legal immigrants (H1B & green card), but to count only payroll taxes paid as a citizen towards benefit calculation. There should be little worry from legislators about losing votes for this (those on the losing end of such legislation can’t vote anyway), and by making it explicit that immigrants pay disproportionately for entitlements, the pro-immigration position should become more broadly popular.
Sunday ~ April 3rd, 2011 at 5:06 pm
More Immigration to fix Social Security: What can we do about spending as a percent of GDP? | Brucetheeconomist's Blog
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