One of the obvious areas where Tyler’s thesis will run into controversy is in Medicine. Medicine is the most obvious place to look for innovation outside of the information sector.
Its also where a big chunk of the middle America’s paycheck has gone. Its not much of a stretch to say that if you think medicine has done a lot of good then you think the last 30 years have been good for the average American. If not then not.
Here I tend to side with Tyler. I don’t think most medicine has done that much good and I am not optimistic about the usefulness of most future medical spending.
This is not to say I don’t think there will be important breakthroughs. I think there will and the next fifty years will be exciting on that front. Its just that along the way we will dump a bunch of GDP down the drain, paying for medicine that is not so good.
The question is why are we doing this?
I have struggled with this. Is it because medical breakthroughs are reaching diminishing marginal returns. That doesn’t seem right because quite frankly there weren’t that many breakthroughs in the past.
We have vaccines, antibiotics, sterilization and anesthesia. That’s about it for really big time breakthroughs.
The view I subscribe to currently is that most people don’t care that much about increasing their life expectancy, they care about being cared for and being cared about. They care about reassurance and they care about feeling like they are not alone.
We can see that people don’t care that much about maximizing their life expectancy because they place an enormous premium on their doctor’s bedside manner and a much smaller premium on his error rate. We can see that when objectively bad doctors who are nice rarely get sued for malpractice, while much better doctors ,who are assholes get sued all the time.
We can see that when we offer potential surgical patients stats on the number of fatalities at prospective hospitals and they refuse them. We can see that when message boards about doctors are filled with comments like “He really understood me.” “She took the time to stop and listen. “ “I knew they cared about whether I got better” “I was more than just a number.”
These are not comments about the skill of the medical provider but about the caring of the medical provider.
Now, when I present this stuff to my students they often say: but a doctor who cares will do a better job and so you are more likely to live longer.
Lets ignore the fact that if this were true it should be captured in the doctors’ stats. Suppose that it is true. Then why in the world are we investing all of this time an energy selecting really smart students and then putting them through years and years of training if the main thing that matters is how much the doc cares?
Dealing with this is a real puzzle. Though I am a free market person, I see the price system’s big advantage is that it conveys information. In medicine virtually no information is conveyed through price. People at all levels are confused about what they really want or what we should do.
For example, when I speak with doctors the issue of non-compliance often comes up. This is typically to explain why treatments that look good in clinical trials don’t work out as well in real life.
Non-compliance is the issue of getting patents to go along with some aspect of the treatment they don’t want to go along with. I argue that if the treatment only works if the patient does something that he or she isn’t going to do, then the treatment doesn’t work. Doesn’t matter what JAMA says. To the docs I say, you go to war with the patients you have, not the patients you wish you had.
To society at large, however, I say, we have to rethink what we are doing here. Ultimately, we want to make sure that we are spending money to make someone better off. If the doctor is complaining, the patient is complaining, and either the insurer or the government is getting a huge bill, then exactly who are we serving here?

10 comments
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Sunday ~ January 30th, 2011 at 6:01 pm
Brett
It’s certainly the most promising. Robotics and automation are seriously expensive, air and space travel the same, and energy is proving difficult (and most of the gains are incremental). Not to mention that many of these fields are starting to push up against limits imposed by the laws of physics.
On medicine (and probably genetic engineering), the field is wide open. It’s expensive at times, but there’s a whole ocean full of potential discoveries and innovations in it.
Sunday ~ January 30th, 2011 at 7:30 pm
Tweets that mention The Great Stagnation – Medicine or Who Ate My Prosperity « Modeled Behavior -- Topsy.com
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by John Gordon, Health Blogger. Health Blogger said: The Great Stagnation – Medicine or Who Ate My Prosperity « Modeled … http://tinyurl.com/46njfcy [...]
Monday ~ January 31st, 2011 at 1:56 am
buddyglass
Two things come to mind that are different now than in days past:
1. The widespread use of (expensive) drugs that are designed to reduce the chance of something bad happening, but that aren’t actually treating something bad that’s already happened. E.g. Lipitor.
2. The widespread (at least more so than in days past) use of (expensive) SSRIs and other drugs designed to treat behavioral symptoms (e.g. Ritalin, Lunesta, etc.)
Monday ~ January 31st, 2011 at 2:29 pm
Zenobia
I will say that I think people do want to extend their life, they’re just not good at knowing and doing what will work. I mean, they think nicer doctors are better doctors, they’re just not good at processing that it’s not how that works. And I do think that people think that medicine is magic, even though that’s not case. Anecdotally speaking, people do expect doctors to cure them of everything and I think death is ultimately in there. I think people think that doctors are magicians and shamans, and you know how much people will pay for voodoo. It doesn’t hurt that doctors present themselves as all-knowing curing machines, I mean, for most people, the experience of talking back to a doctor is not a good one.
Tuesday ~ February 1st, 2011 at 1:26 pm
Health Care Waste « Modeled Behavior
[...] time, I think a lot of people seriously underrate the value of modern improvements in healthcare. It’s not just vaccines, antibiotics, sterilization and anesthesia. Hip replacements really, truly improve your life quality, far more than a better car does. Ditto [...]
Tuesday ~ February 1st, 2011 at 1:37 pm
bdbd
I’d add dentistry to the short list of past innovations, although perhaps it’s a subset of anesthesia
Wednesday ~ February 2nd, 2011 at 8:53 pm
Amerloc
“The view I subscribe to currently is that most people don’t care that much about increasing their life expectancy, they care about being cared for and being cared about. They care about reassurance and they care about feeling like they are not alone. ”
Huh.
Imagine people caring more about quality than quantity.
In a world where we can still buy Ripple…
Wednesday ~ February 2nd, 2011 at 9:02 pm
Amerloc
“Lets ignore the fact that if this were true it should be captured in the doctors’ stats.”
And while we’re at it, let’s ignore the fact that apostrophes indicate contraction as well as possession. And that we’re human, and because of that we pay attention to things that make no frikkin sense to anyone else.
And then maybe we can stumble upon the idea that the internet is a huge, unfathomable place where no post is private, or even remotely isolated to a singular audience.
And maybe, if we want to keep our feet warm, we should just light a damned fire.
Friday ~ February 4th, 2011 at 12:18 am
Value of Health Care
[...] Drum: I think a lot of people seriously underrate the value of modern improvements in healthcare. It’s not just vaccines, antibiotics, sterilization and anesthesia. Hip replacements really, truly improve your life quality, far more than a better car does. Ditto [...]
Tuesday ~ February 8th, 2011 at 1:46 am
Julie
People want a doctor to extend their life, but that’s not all they want. I have a lot of experience of doctor-shopping because I have a severe case of a painful disease that went undiagnosed for about ten years. (It was a surgical diagnosis that wasn’t made until I finally developed an abdominal mass that required a biopsy.)
My experience was that the asshole doctors would do enough tests to make sure I wasn’t dying, but that was about it. They might prescribe some treatment for my symptoms, but if it didn’t work, they just didn’t want to hear about it or bother with me any longer.
With caring doctors, they would do more tests, and try more treatments, because they actually cared how I felt and wanted me to get better.
Also, it’s not as though you have to choose between smart and caring, the point is to find both in one person. Things like stats (where are those, btw?) might be important for a brain surgeon, but a primary care doctor needs to care to do a decent job.