From a new NBER working paper by Eric Hanushek comes this shocking abstract:
A teacher one standard deviation above the mean effectiveness annually generates marginal gains of over $400,000 in present value of student future earnings with a class size of 20 and proportionately higher with larger class sizes. Alternatively, replacing the bottom 5-8 percent of teachers with average teachers could move the U.S. near the top of international math and science rankings with a present value of $100 trillion.
There are really two important claims here. I think progressives tend to be very pleased with claims like the first one, which is that teachers have a very high value. You can find similar results in the work of Raj Chetty, which suggests that good kindergarten teachers are worth $320,000. If this is true then the marginal benefit of teaching skill -or quality, if you want to think of it that way- is far below the marginal cost, and therefore we should increase wages to draw more talented teachers.
However, the second claim is just as important and is suggested by, although not a necessary condition of, the first: if good teachers are very valuable, then bad teachers are very costly. This means we should be willing to pay more for good teachers, but it also increases the benefit of getting rid of bad teachers and ensuring we have a system that can do that. After all, every dollar spent on a bad teacher has the high opportunity cost of good teachers.
Findings like this tell us that we should place even less relative value on teacher well-being for it’s own sake (which is separate from teacher well-being to the extent that it improves outcomes) when considering reforms. I think this is something that some progressives aren’t as happy to hear, especially with regard to using the teaching profession as a middle class jobs program.
Overall though these results reinforce one fact that progressives and conservatives should agree on: this is a really important issue.

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Monday ~ December 20th, 2010 at 4:51 pm
"Wow" result of the day - Economics -
[...] TEACHING matters:A teacher one standard deviation above the mean effectiveness annually generates marginal gains of over $400,000 in present value of student future earnings with a class size of 20 and proportionately higher with larger class sizes. Alternatively, replacing the bottom 5-8 percent of teachers with average teachers could move the U.S. near the top of international math and science rankings with a present value of $100 trillion.Adam Ozimek offers commentary here. [...]
Monday ~ December 20th, 2010 at 7:19 pm
"Wow" result of the day [The Economist] | DreamInn
[...] Ozimek offers commentary here. Categories: News Tags: above-the-mean, annually-generates, class-size, larger-class, [...]
Tuesday ~ December 21st, 2010 at 11:00 am
SRLATHAM
A remarkable paper, Adam, thanks for drawing attention to it.
Given the context, though, I can’t resist pointing out that a really good elementary school teacher would’ve taught you that there’s no apostrophe in the word “its” in the phrase “well-being for its own sake.”
Tuesday ~ December 21st, 2010 at 11:10 am
Adam Ozimek
Haha thanks. If you search for “it’s” in the search window of this blog I’d venture you would find hundreds if not thousands of occasions of me misusing that. I know it’s wrong but never remember when I’m writing… For instance, in that last sentence.
Tuesday ~ December 21st, 2010 at 12:57 pm
Those Teacher Numbers « Modeled Behavior
[...] ~ December 21st, 2010 in Economics | by Karl Smith Adam points to a new study estimating a 400K social value of a good teacher. This is in line with other recent estimates. I [...]
Tuesday ~ December 21st, 2010 at 1:07 pm
D. Ferguson
By what measure are teachers considered effective? Standardized test scores? Are we really willing to put all that faith into tests that we know little about? Why don’t we ever question the test?
Just as an example, right now in elementary schools, one of the most popular assessments for early reading is called Nonsense Word Fluency, as in how many NONSENSE words can you read in a minute, as in measuring the ability of children reading NONSENSE has for some reason in the last 7 years mattered for helping a child read real words. Millions of kids have to do this, simply because the creator of the test was on a government panel that decided which tests were appropriate for systems to use if receiving Reading First funding under NCLB. Everyone went with his test, despite the research community heavily criticizing it. When there was a Senate hearing on allegations of corruption in Reading First, the Secretary of Ed. Margaret Spellings spoke out that reading scores were increasing. The data she was referring to was NONSENSE Word Fluency.
I’m a teacher, I believe in accountability, I’m not anti-standardized test, but I am against being measured by nonsense, and forcing kids to be tested on nonsense. Why can’t everyone agree that’s an important issue as well?
Tuesday ~ December 21st, 2010 at 4:54 pm
Trakker
Excellent comment.
I was in the PTA for 10 yeas while my kids were in school and got to know the teachers quite well. Our schools happened to have a high mobility rate among students. Many who transferred in had poor basics and were a real challenge, as were the many students spoke little English. Using standardized tests as a judge of our teachers would have been criminal.
The other thing that annoys me is the tone of many who advocate “firing bad teachers.” Often it appears the desire to fire is prompted more by a dislike of teacher’s unions than a desire for better schools. Teachers have invested four years (at least) in training for their career. Many have hefty student loans to pay off. Often they find themselves facing some pretty unruly or challenging kids to educate. I suspect many who think we should fire all the bad teachers wouldn’t survive long themselves in such an environment.
Firing should be the last resort. They should be mentored first and be given a chance to improve.
Thursday ~ December 23rd, 2010 at 4:14 pm
kjmclark
I thought the “nonsense” bit was a joke, so I looked it up, to find that there certainly are such tests, and they really are called nonsense word fluency. You couldn’t have made up a more ridiculous test name. And, for some reason, the test marks completely correct answers as wrong, for no apparent reason. I suppose being a literate adult makes one an illiterate first grader.
I would say that in any case that someone decides a teacher is performing poorly, we should have them exchange classrooms with a teacher doing well for a half-year. If the formerly poorly performing teacher continues to do poorly, then we assume it is indeed the teacher, and consider removal. If they perform better, and the formerly well performing teacher does worse, we assume it’s the classroom and require the principal to fix the situation. If there are particular children in the classroom disrupting things, the principal needs to talk to the parents, and if the problems don’t change, it becomes the district’s problem and we look at firing administrators for not providing an alternative situation for that child.
I’ve found in my children’s classes that it’s just as often a few children that are only motivated to behave poorly and bring down the whole class as a result. The teacher may lack the skills to get these children to behave, but as often as not, the principal is also not able to get these children to behave. The district, in that case, should be responsible for finding another classroom to move the child to where they won’t be disrupting the other kids.
Tuesday ~ December 21st, 2010 at 8:00 pm
Is a Good Teacher Worth $400,000? | Con Games
[...] Are Two Ways to Interpret This Data, argues Adam Ozimek at Modeled Behavior. Studies like this show that teachers are valuable and that we [...]
Wednesday ~ December 22nd, 2010 at 8:33 am
相当$400,000价值的一位好老师? · My China – 我的中国
[...] Are Two Ways to Interpret This Data, argues Adam Ozimek at Modeled Behavior. Studies like this show that teachers are valuable and that we [...]
Wednesday ~ December 22nd, 2010 at 12:12 pm
Balloon Juice » Blog Archive » Really, Teacher. I read the Assignment. The Marvel Comics version.
[...] then links to Adam Ozimek, who calls the abstract “shocking,” and claims that the most important lesson to learn [...]
Wednesday ~ December 22nd, 2010 at 12:14 pm
“Wow” result of the day | She's a Savvy Investor
[...] Adam Ozimek offers commentary here. [...]
Wednesday ~ December 22nd, 2010 at 12:28 pm
Really, Teacher. I Read the Assignment. The Marvel Comics Version. « The Inverse Square Blog
[...] then links to Adam Ozimek, who calls the abstract “shocking,” and claims that the most important lesson to learn [...]
Wednesday ~ December 22nd, 2010 at 3:48 pm
How Much Is a Good Teacher Worth in Cash? — The Good Men Project Magazine
[...] does this mean? Well, the sunniest interpretation is that this proves the value of teaching in cold hard cash. Oh, and that they should be paid more. As Adam Ozimek from Modeled Behavior [...]
Friday ~ December 24th, 2010 at 12:05 pm
Wat kost een slechte leraar? | The Logic Free Zone
[...] D’r is ook Amerikaans onderzoek over dit onderwerp: A teacher one standard deviation above the mean effectiveness annually generates marginal gains of over [...]
Saturday ~ January 1st, 2011 at 3:22 pm
Odds and Ends – No. 3 « It’s Mike Ettner’s Blog
[...] Value of Higher Teacher Quality”. Adam Ozimek’s thoughts on where this leads, are here. Raj Chetty, a Harvard economist who is also investigating this subject, estimates that an [...]
Monday ~ May 13th, 2013 at 10:53 am
Is a Good Teacher Worth $400,000? | What Babak is Reading
[…] Are Two Ways to Interpret This Data, argues Adam Ozimek at Modeled Behavior. Studies like this show that teachers are valuable and that we […]