The 10 year breakeven rate seems to be moving higher indicating that the market is expecting inflation. This is the yield on 10 year treasuries minus the yield on inflation protected treasuries. Its not a pure measure of inflation because there seems to be a risk premium built into the TIPS. They have consistently underperformed.
Nonetheless this is an encouraging move upwards since Sep.
The long view: You can see the Lehman crash clearly as well as the early 2010 stall.
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Monday ~ October 25th, 2010 at 2:26 pm
Yglesias » Is It Hard to Inflate?
[...] me, it seems like this would be easy. Note, for example, that increased Fed chatter about quantitative easing seems to have successfully reversed a downward trend in the TIPS [...]
Tuesday ~ October 26th, 2010 at 9:44 am
Yglesias» Is It Hard to Inflate? « Politics
[...] me, it seems like this would be easy. Note, for example, thatincreased Fed chatter about quantitative easingseems to have successfully reversed a downward trend in the TIPS [...]