The 10 year breakeven rate seems to be moving higher indicating that the market is expecting inflation. This is the yield on 10 year treasuries minus the yield on inflation protected treasuries. Its not a pure measure of inflation because there seems to be a risk premium built into the TIPS. They have consistently underperformed.

Nonetheless this is an encouraging move upwards since Sep.

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The long view: You can see the Lehman crash clearly as well as the early 2010 stall.

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