There is a strong case for the prompt enactment of further timely, targeted and temporary fiscal stimulus…
Larry Summers, 2008
Remember when stimulus was supposed to be temporary, targeted, and timely? The departure from that notion by those calling for short-term austerity has been recognized and ridiculed. But there are those calling for long-term commitments and programs which are just as far afield from ideal stimulus. To wit, Michael Lind Policy Director at the New America Foundation, calling for permanent increases in the public sector and, yes, a new entitlement program for seniors.
One solution would be direct, permanent expansion of public sector employment in “quality of life” jobs like teaching, child care, public health care, and policing….
…Many democracies in Europe and Asia have had successful experiences with vouchers provided to individuals for in-home services. My colleague at the New America Foundation Lauren Damme and I have proposed a Dignity Voucher program along these lines. Qualified retirees would receive vouchers entitling them to a certain number of hours of in-home help each week.
I’d first like to point out that this is exactly the opposite of what you want in countercyclical stimulus. It’s untargeted, untimely, and permanent. At most you could defend targeted, but “make more teachers, police, and health care workers” isn’t even a very targeted goal, let alone the vast and disparate array of policies necessary to actually accomplish that. You want to argue that we could get this done quickly? Take another look what he has in mind:
Many of these victims of the Great Recession have limited skills and were employed in low-wage jobs in the luxury sectors like restaurants and retail that catered to the big spenders of the bubble economy. The goal of public policy should be to directly and indirectly provide jobs for many of these workers in service sector jobs that address the needs of mainstream Americans, like health care and education, rather than return them to dead-end menial service jobs where they will work again for the affluent.
Your not going to turn waiters and GAP cashiers into radiologists and teachers overnight. This is going to take a long time.
I understand the need to plan for the long-term health of the economy, but unlike infrastructure spending these suggestions can’t be defended by appealing to long-term growth. Instead, this is a straight up plan for a larger, more redistributive government. One of the biggest problems today is that in the long-run we can’t afford the level of government, and in the short-run we can’t afford to cut back on spending or raise taxes. A slowly rolled out, permanent increase in government payrolls and entitlements doesn’t help either, and will probably make both worse. I mean this guys is seriously arguing for another entitlement program for senior citizens. He’s actually saying this.

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Thursday ~ September 16th, 2010 at 8:24 am
jazzbumpa
You omitted something rather important.
That prolonged and painful process of household deleveraging could take years, perhaps more than a decade, and until it is complete we should seek to avoid additional unsustainable consumer spending sprees.
Sure, retraining takes time. But a great deal of it can be accomplished in 2 to 4 years, which looks pretty good compared to a decade or more. And once its done, you have a better-off society, with workers who have moved up the scale a notch.
Clearly what Lind is proposing is an adjunct to stimulus. Feel free to disagree with and criticize Lind. His ideas might be sub-optimal vis-a-vis pure stimulus. But do it in a fair way – not by comparing his ideas, which he has actually done a reasonable job of justifying – with austerian ideas, which have been ridiculed because they are so obviously counter-productive, and invalidated by a look at history.
And, without gainsaying Summers, one may look at programs that have not only a stimulative effect, but also social and economic consequences that stretch farther into the future. (Though a cynic might want to call it disaster socialism.)
More importantly, Lind’s concepts – a response to a specific request for BLUE SKY ideas – have not a snowball’s chance of even being considered for serious discussion in a political environment where cutting social security is being actively promoted, along with a lot of other mis-guided not only austerian but actively regressive cat-food committee notions.
You’re a bright guy, but you consistently devote large chunks of mental effort to things that are peripheral to what’s going on, trivial in their importance, and unlikely to happen. Kind of a waste in these tough times.
Focus, man.
Cheers!
JzB
Thursday ~ September 16th, 2010 at 8:42 am
Stephan
“One of the biggest problems today is that in the long-run we can’t afford the level of government, …”
Why? Is the US Treasury or the FED running out of keystrokes? Last time I checked the Federal Reserve had very deep pockets to monetize US federal debt. In the absence of inflation I would say infinity minus 1 US$.
Thursday ~ September 16th, 2010 at 10:33 am
Rebecca Burlingame
Actually, no, it does not always take a long time to train someone to become a radiologist (two years), or to teach, for there are a lot of waiters with plenty of education.
I understand that it is not the job of government to help individuals in this manner. However Michael Lind is no dummy. What he suggested has a lot more relevance than a good portion of the money that has already been spent. Also, those vouchers for in-home care are one of the first attempts I’ve seen to directly match individuals to individuals in an informal fashion. Many self-employed would-be providers of services of all kinds in cities eventually give up because there simply are not enough customers who can pay. Also, those who can provide at home health care eventually save the system money, in that the mere presence of such individuals can be enough to lessen the numbers of times people with chronic illness wind up in the hospital.
Again, government is already strapped with more debt than it can deal with. But just the same, government needs to help people to help themselves at local levels by removing the legal barriers that would allow them to do so.
Thursday ~ September 16th, 2010 at 11:01 am
Stephan
Rebecca,
It’s amazing how even progressives fall for the rights debt/deficit hysteria hook, line and sinker. Think about it: modern money is merely a unit of accounting.
When you ask, “Where does the government get the money to pay for this or that?” you fail to understand that the government’s “money” is merely an accounting entry on a spreadsheet. To better understand this think about where you got the number “1″ the next time you type it on your spreadsheet? Or the number “1000?” Or “100,000,000,000,000?” You just typed it in. Same thing with modern money. Many people have trouble with this idea because they still believe that money is something we dig up out of the ground.
And yes. Inflation is a constraint on issuing government debt. But right now and for the foreseeable future inflation isn’t the problem to worry about.
Thursday ~ September 16th, 2010 at 11:07 am
Bosola
I am generally ill-disposed to the creation of any new entitlement programs for Seniors at this point.
In the first place, poverty among seniors is simply not the national problem it was 50 years ago. Seniors were once the most-poor segment of the country. They are now the least-poor: http://uspolitics.about.com/od/economy/ig/Consumer-Income–Insurance/Poverty-by-Age-Group-1959-2006.htm
Which is to say, Social Security and Medicare have worked. They are very successful programs. A measure of their success is that they have dramatically improved the lot of seniors relative to the rest of the population.
In the second place, the result of all this attention and treasure being poured on the seniors of this country has been to make them reflexively oppose government assistance for anyone else beside them. Look at the health care debate. Who opposed the Affordable Care Act more reliably than any other age group? Why, seniors–the ones who already get government-provided health care.
So, frankly, screw them. Target aid to the poor, of whatever age cohort. If I get one more email from my 82-year-old grandmother about this terrible government takeover of our health care system, I swear I’m going to break something.
Thursday ~ September 16th, 2010 at 11:21 am
jazzbumpa
Bosola -
OK. Slow down. Deep breath.
Sure you gran is ignorant, gullible and foolish, but I’m on social security too, so don’t take it out on me.
I have to believe there would be some sort of means testing for Lind’s proposals. The mere fact that there are lots of rich old people does not negate that there are also lots of poor old people.
You got this right – Targeting the poor is always the best stimulus. Regressives hate food stamps, frex, but they get spent in about a microsecond. Win-win, all the way around.
Cheers!
JzB
Thursday ~ September 16th, 2010 at 12:50 pm
jazzbumpa
In 1975, poverty rate above age 65 was 15.3%
In 2009, poverty rate above age 65 was 8.9%
The biggest improvements happened between ’79 and ’84. and again between ’92 and ’95. Make of that what you will
Data from table 12 here.
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/data/historical/people.html
You have to subtract the number between 1.00 and 1.25 of the poverty level from the number below 1.25.
Cheers!
JzB
Thursday ~ September 16th, 2010 at 1:26 pm
Bosola
No argument on the numbers, or on the timing. Ideally, you want to stretch these comparisons back to the creation of Social Security, or at least Medicare, to see the dramatic decline in the elderly poor. Seniors, as an age group, are now no more poor than those 18-65, and substantially less poor than children under the age of 18, which is where we have a real crisis of poverty in this country. That is why I say programs for seniors qua their status as seniors are not of great interest to me.
I hope you don’t think I’m attacking you or eyeing your programs greedily. Social Security, for all the stick it gets, is one of the great triumphs of government in this country’s history–right up there with beating the Nazis and providing universal education.
Cheers back at you.
Thursday ~ September 16th, 2010 at 11:59 am
Rebecca Burlingame
Stephan,
You’re right that government uses money in the present as an accounting entry. And, programs to fix problems at the local, or direct level, are a drop in the bucket compared to what government would rather spend money on. The problem for me is what our government would rather spend money on, which in the future will ruin us as housing prices continue to be propped up beyond belief. And so it is that future I want to prepare for, in which I firmly believe our government will shoot itself in the foot and default on its citizens. If governments really stopped to think about what money does well and what it does not do well, they would take better care of their citizens directly. Because they do not, in order to have a decent world, citizens will soon have to take care of their governments.
Thursday ~ September 16th, 2010 at 4:22 pm
Stephan
OK … But I’ve a problem with your understanding of government. Let’s say some libertarian party wins the election. They campaigned on the promise that it’s much much better for citizens to take care of themselves instead of government taking care of them. Wouldn’t this government be legitimate? (Beside that they would be out of office 4 years later
Thursday ~ September 16th, 2010 at 5:34 pm
Rebecca Burlingame
Economic tools need to be created which utilize libertarianism for inspiration but not as a total hands off situation, which is impossible and undesirable in a complex society. And for most of us the goal is to keep as much of the good complexity as possible…that and knowing that culturally few of us want to return to the past. Let government have all the fun with money and war and all the other nonsense they want to play with. Let citizens be responsible and provide social services that money does such a lousy job of representing. One can hope that the two systems would find good ways to interlink.
Thursday ~ September 16th, 2010 at 9:06 pm
jazzbumpa
In case anyone is interested, I’ve graphed the poverty data.
http://jazzbumpa.blogspot.com/2010/09/poverty.html
Cheers!
JzB
Sunday ~ September 19th, 2010 at 12:26 pm
blokeinfrance
In the US you now call it the Keynesian Compact (Krugman). In Europe, where we’ve practised Keynesianism through about ten cycles of both boom and bust, we call it the Keynesian ratchet.
Beware!
Friday ~ February 4th, 2011 at 7:27 am
Willie O. Thomas
God help us all!