Sometimes I think if Jamie Galbraith were as heterodox in the conservative direction as he is in the liberal direction he would be mercilessly skewered in the econ-blogosphere. What is the conservative equivalent of “deficits never matter”? It’s probably somewhere between “cutting taxes always raises revenues” and “FDR caused the Great Depression”.
That, again, was my initial reaction when I read his proposal (via Mark Thoma) that we shouldn’t be cutting medicare and social security, but expanding them. Then, much to my surprise, somewhere about halfway down the page I found myself somewhat convinced, or at the very least intrigued and open to persuasion, by part of it.
He argues that we should lower the social security age to 62 for three years. This would allow older workers to leave the workforce, and would open up job vacancies for younger workers. You can see some appeal to this. If you have to subsidize the unemployment of some workers, it should be the older ones who no longer need to accumulate skills.
Right now one thing we are witnessing is older people hanging onto their jobs longer, and so younger people can’t begin climbing up the ladder. Younger people are thus suffering from decreased work experience and bouts of unemployment or very low-skilled work. This is at best delaying the accumulation of human capital and so lowering the present value of their lifetime earnings, but also likely causing them to forego investing in, or even destroy, human capital. Giving old people the cushion to leave their jobs like they otherwise might have can help prevent some of this. If you think hysterisis is a serious threat, this plan looks even better.
An alternative plan is to directly subsidize human capital accumulation of young people by paying for more education or training. But this involves the government making many decisions and creating many (more) marginal distortions in human capital investments of young people. In contrast, lowering social security age creates much less of these distortions.
There’s a cleanness and a simplicity to lowering the social security age that I find very compelling. Maybe Jamie Galbraith isn’t crazy, and this is a reminder of the value of having heterodox thinkers like him around to come up with ideas like this that conventional economists wouldn’t dream up. Or maybe I’m just crazy too, and this is a terrible idea. Somebody talk me out of this.

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Wednesday ~ August 4th, 2010 at 8:34 am
Kevin
I’m interested in the “is Galbraith crazy?” argument. I hadn’t seen this recent development, but had written him off after the Ezra interview.
I’m curious as to your take on “econ-blogosphere consensus” (a minor point in this post). When you say the idea “FDR caused the Great Depression,” do you mean the idea that the nation falling into the Great Depression was FDR’s fault, or the (what I think reasonable, but could be wrong) idea that some of FDR’s policies unnecessarily prolonged the Depression?
Wednesday ~ August 4th, 2010 at 3:03 pm
jazzbumpa
Actually, JG isn’t saying deficits don’t matter. He is saying they matter a lot, in a very good way, and the economy gets pale and anemic without them.
This might not be as crazy as it looks to the casual observer. I’m not too familiar with JG, so I don’t know what his thoughts are at a detail level. My take – you need to pick your spots. Run deficits in ways that are helpful to the domestic economy – infrastructure (long term, I guess), to support everything else; food stamps, unemployment comp, various transfer payments to the bottom rung – immediate short term spending.
Maybe, if you target policy to a defined low unemployment or moderate inflation level, other things fall into place.
What is counterproductive is tax policy favoring the wealthy, and spending on endless discretionary wars.
BTW, I started collecting SS at 62, a year and a half ago. You get less per month, but the break even point at 0 interest rate is 13 years in the future. Too much like Keynes’ long run for may taste.
I don’t think I’ve talked you out of anything. Lo siento.
Cheers!
JzB
Wednesday ~ August 4th, 2010 at 3:17 pm
Is Jamie Galbraith Crazy, Ctd « Modeled Behavior
[...] ~ August 4th, 2010 in Economics | by Karl Smith Picking up from Adam. So, Jamie Galbraith actually echoes a lot of the things I have [...]
Monday ~ December 6th, 2010 at 10:23 am
Axel
Can I suggest you take a look at the French experience in subsidizing early retirement in order to reduce massive unemployment in the 90′s. To make a long story short, it doesn’t work. Basically there is a positive correlation between then youngs and elderly employment rates, plus some companies can have some issues with human capital loss (as you rightly mentionned). So it proved a very costly public policy for tiny results. Obviously, France didn’t generally lowered retirement age as JG propose (was hard to implement with 60 being already quite low), but used more focused early retirement schemes.