When people talk about government intervention as a causal factor in the house price bubble, they’re usually talking about the contentious issue of Fannie/Freddie, the CRA, and other policies associated with encouraging homeownership. Much more important than those factors, whose existence are not necessary conditions for the bubble, may be local regulations that restrict land use. A new paper investigates:
“Using data from 326 US cities, our study examines empirically how residential land use regulation, geographic land constraint and credit expansion are related to the swing of house prices between January 2000 and July 2009… We find that cities that are more regulated or have less developable land experienced greater price gains between January 2000 and June 2006, and greater price declines between June 2006 and July 2009. In addition, the natural and man-made constraints both amplified the responses of house prices to an initial demand shock arising from the mortgage market, turning the shock into a greater price gain and subsequently a greater loss. Finally, over the entire period, cities that had more marginal borrowers before the credit expansion did not experience greater growth in housing prices, indicating that the subprime expansion did not leave a positive legacy on the price front.”
I think convincingly proving this would require some panel data rather than the cross section used by the authors, and potentially some natural experiments. But I am glad to see this being investigated empirically, it strikes me as an important point: some very very common regulations may have serious unintended costs.

15 comments
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Sunday ~ July 25th, 2010 at 9:08 am
roland
I think Glaeser has written on this – anecdotal counter example is Phoenix
Thursday ~ July 29th, 2010 at 7:30 pm
Wodehouse
Phoenix and Las Vegas are hemmed in by Federal-govt owned land.
Sunday ~ July 25th, 2010 at 11:02 am
Rebecca Burlingame
True, it is easy to get upset with our government for the 30 year mortgages that pushed lending institutions to bundle mortgages and resell them in the first place. But underlying that problem was the problem of so many municipalities not wanting any piece of land in their jurisdiction to have less than set amounts of taxation available, which led to bigger and more expensive homes. In a way, the subprime loan was government trying to solve the problem of people who could not otherwise afford to live in the city where their job was.
Sunday ~ July 25th, 2010 at 1:52 pm
Lord
In constrained areas bubbles arise in price while in unconstrained areas they arise in construction. The former results in transfers between buyers/lenders and sellers, excessive debt and default while the latter results in modern ghost towns without the income to cover the costs. The latter is probably worse as it wastes real resources not just financial ones.
Sunday ~ July 25th, 2010 at 2:06 pm
Andrew
I think that this will be very hard to prove. There is a much stronger case that lack of government regulation is more of the cause of the meltdown. Back in the 80′s, bond trader Lou Raineri and Solomon Brothers set up the mortgage-backed securities scheme, which included government entities buying up much of the debt (Fannie/Freddie). These entities were really the only one’s big enough to handle this type of transaction. This government involvement was really a hand-out to Wall Street, not so much a politically motivated move to give mortgages to poor people (although this talking point didn’t hurt). Incidentally, Lou Raineri and Wall Street got rich. The name of the game was originating as many mortgages as possible, to be sold, re-sold, and eventually pooled for securities. Everyone in the scheme made tons of money, and Fannie/Freddie were generally left holding the majority of the risk.
In order to originate as many mortgages as possible, unregulated fly-by-night lenders came up with “no doc” loans (where the borrowers do not have to show any proof of income). You just walk in to the unregulated mortgage company and pretend that you make $1 million a year. You get a huge loan, no questions asked. Keep in mind that mortgages used to be regulated by a rule that required an FDIC institution to issue them. However, the mortgage lobby came up with unregulated “mortgage companies” that skirted this regulation, allowing no-doc loans.
This scheme also promotes fraud on the part of the originators. Under a legal principle known as “holder in due course,” the holder of the mortgage cannot be sued for fraud committed before he bought the mortgage. In general, the fly-by-night originators are out of business every few months, changing names and locations frequently, so they can’t be sued. Now, anyone trying to sue for fraud has to go after the entity holding the mortgage. However, that won’t stick because the entity is a “holder in due course.” The homeowner is out of luck. This protection for the holder, usually a large Wall Street firm, or Fannie/Freddie, added to the problem. Again, government did not regulate this.
I think that there is a better argument that this scheme, with the no-doc loans, the selling and re-selling, the pooling and securitization, and faulty risk calculations caused this problem. All of this was allowed because of a lack of regulation, not the other way around.
Sunday ~ July 25th, 2010 at 2:13 pm
rjs
did fannie and freddie cause the housing bubble in spain?
Monday ~ July 26th, 2010 at 2:42 am
Andrew
I’m sorry, I thought that this post was addressing regulation and causes of the US housing crisis since it discusses Fannie/Freddie and data from 326 US cities. My bad.
Thursday ~ July 29th, 2010 at 7:33 pm
Wodehouse
RJS is absolutely right. Check out the OECD Report “A Bird’s-eye view of OECD Housing Markets”. This is not just the USA.
The only factor that EVERYONE got wrong, was the urban limits. Not everyone had Freddie Mac, the HUD, the CRA, lack of capital gains taxes, etc etc. Why are so many people so anxious to blame every factor that DOESN’T explain this, and ignore the only facor that DOES?
Thursday ~ July 29th, 2010 at 9:33 pm
Adam Ozimek
According to Russ Roberts most EU countries had something like Fannie and Freddie as well. Find me a country where the housing market is mostly free market. My guess is you’ll have to go to countries that are mostly without governments, e.g. Somalia.
Sunday ~ July 25th, 2010 at 2:46 pm
Matt S.
Wasn’t the world awash in money as a matter monetary policy? Wasn’t the policy direction from the top down to encourage (stimulate) consumer spending, that great engine of prosperity?
Wednesday ~ July 28th, 2010 at 9:15 am
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Sunday ~ August 1st, 2010 at 10:50 pm
Wodehouse
Adam, that is cute. “Find me a country where the housing market is mostly free market”. Having destroyed all free markets, the left’s main argument now is, “show me a free market” and we’ll see how well it is working.
As it happens, the ONLY housing markets that did NOT have a speculative bubble, are the low-regulation, non-urban-growth-boundary markets that do still exist in parts of the USA and Canada. Is that not enough evidence?
Oh, Germany and Japan were still recovering from previous collapsed bubbles. But note Oliver Hartwich’s study of how Germany has developed a regulatory environment that avoids housing unaffordability. The study is called “Bigger Better Faster More”.
It is actually not hard to calculate how loose urban growth regulation needs to be to avoid the land supply being cornered by “land bankers”. There needs to be so much free land, that it would be uneconomic for any land banker to hold it for the duration of the “x” years worth of “supply” contained within the growth boundary.
“x” years needs to relate to demand at PRE BUBBLE price levels. Of course “years supply” drops as prices go up.
Sunday ~ August 1st, 2010 at 10:58 pm
Wodehouse
Matt S.
Australia had interest rates consistently 2 to 3 times as high as the USA’s, but have still had a house price bubble that matches California pre-crash. And this bubble has inflated another 25% in the last 2 years. So clearly there is no stopping people once they have these expectations in their heads -even though they have the negative example of California displayed for all to see.
An Australian economist, Alan Moran, has written an excellent book (also online as a PDF) called “The Tragedy of Planning”. He analyses numerous factors that apply to housing markets in different nations and proves that it is urban growth boundaries that are responsible for the bubbles. All the other factors have counter-examples somewhere in the world that disprove them.
Tuesday ~ August 10th, 2010 at 11:52 am
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Wednesday ~ August 11th, 2010 at 10:21 am
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