I’m guessing they’re buried in Health Care and Education because it doesn’t look like they’re in retail sales. See what I mean:
Up until right before the crash the two tracked each other well. However, at the peak of the housing bubble, when Americans were supposed to be blowing all their money on Plasma TVs and nights out at the Olive Garden, retail sales growth was actually slowing down while Personal Consumption Expenditure continued growing, unabated.
To date Retail Sales have not yet recovered. However PCE is on a tear, breaking through the old peak and setting new highs. What gives?
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Tuesday ~ May 4th, 2010 at 6:40 am
ESFX | news » This Picture Tells “the” Story
[...] been said that every picture tells a story, I reckon the image highlighted by Modeled Behavior in “Still Trying to Locate those Personal Consumption Expenditures,” tells the story about the alleged good health of the American consumer: I’m guessing they’re [...]
Tuesday ~ May 4th, 2010 at 7:00 am
rjs
state sales tax colloections are still down 5.5% YOY:
http://marketwatch666.blogspot.com/2010/04/go-figure.html
(see comments)
and this:
http://anecdotaleconomics.blogspot.com/2010/04/disconnected-retail-sales-vs-sales-tax.html
Tuesday ~ May 4th, 2010 at 2:24 pm
This Picture Tells the Story About Alleged Good Health of American Consumer | Stocks and Sectors
[...] been said that every picture tells a story, I reckon the image highlighted by Modeled Behavior in "Still Trying to Locate those Personal Consumption Expenditures," tells the story about the alleged good health of the American [...]
Tuesday ~ May 4th, 2010 at 3:36 pm
CHART OF THE DAY: Exploding The Myth Of The Rebounding Consumer « Finance Blog
[...] chart, first put together by Karl Smith at Modeled Behavior, plots personal consumption against retail and food sales. Note that the later, in the blue line, [...]
Wednesday ~ May 5th, 2010 at 3:11 am
Making Every Plug Talk | Comprehensive Software listings, Reviews and Articles
[...] Still Trying to Locate those Personal Consumption Expenditures … [...]
Wednesday ~ May 5th, 2010 at 4:10 am
CHART OF THE DAY: Exploding The Myth Of The Rebounding Consumer | Popular Survey Site
[...] chart, first put together by Karl Smith at Modeled Behavior, plots personal consumption against retail and food sales. Note that the later, in the blue line, [...]
Wednesday ~ May 5th, 2010 at 4:40 am
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Wednesday ~ May 5th, 2010 at 12:46 pm
David
Is this not due to gas, utility and food price inflation which are often removed from retail sales numbers?
I know certainly in Australia, that gas prices, food prices and the costs of utilities have been rapidly increasing in recent years and placing substantially more demands on the pay checks of Aussie John Does.
Furthermore reduction of purchasing power due to long term currency devaluation must come in to play here?
IMHO.
Thursday ~ May 6th, 2010 at 9:14 pm
What We’re Reading: Ransom Notes - Economix Blog - NYTimes.com
[...] Consumers are spending money again. So … what exactly are they spending money on? [...]
Saturday ~ September 11th, 2010 at 11:58 am
Retail Sales and Personal Consumption | Economic Assets Group
[...] Modeled Behavior highlights the gap between consumption and retail sales. This entry was posted in Economics. Bookmark the permalink. ← Stephen Roach Surveys The Next Asia [...]