The proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency was supposed to regulate payday loans -those extremely high interest rate short term loans- but it now appears that it may not. This could turn out to be a good thing for consumers, since the best way to help payday borrowers might be to deregulate the industry…. Bare with me, I know that sounds ridiculous.
A recent paper from Robert DeYoung and Ronnie Phillips at the Kansas City Fed provides some cautionary results about potential negative side effects of increasing regulation, and suggests possible positive impacts of deregulation. What they find is that more competition among payday lenders can decrease the exorbitant interest rates on payday loans. Increasing competition decreases prices; this is not so surprising.
The authors even go so far as to suggest increasing competition by removing regulations that limit the ability of local banks, thrifts, and credit unions to offer payday loans. This makes sense, since reputation is probably more important to local banks, thrifts, and credit unions than it is to payday lenders, they would be more likely to offer actuarily fairly priced payday loans and less likely to try and manipulate borrowers with confusing contracts, etc. In fact, DeYoung and Phillips provide evidence that payday lenders with large franchises are less likely than mom-and-pop stores to engage in exploitative pricing behaviors. Getting banks and other financial institutions into payday lending could help prevent a “race to the bottom” in lending standards that might otherwise result from increasing competition.
Another caution provided by DeYoung and Phillips is that setting a rate cap may provide a Schelling point for payday lenders to collude around, so that for many borrowers rates could actually go up. What this means is that the payday lending industry has the market concentration to collude, but without explicitly communicating with each other (“Hey, if you charge 1,000% and I’ll charge 1,000% too) they cannot find a stable equilibrium price point to settle on, thus the resulting market is somewhat competitive. A rate cap provides them with a natural price point to collude around. So if the government says “You can’t charge more than X%”, then that rate becomes a Schelling point and all lenders begin collusively charging X% for all loans, which can actually be a higher price point than they were previously charging for many loans. The evidence they provide is not conclusive, but it is consistent with studies that have shown similar responses resulting from credit card rate ceilings.
I would not say this paper is conclusive enough to declare that these impacts are what will occur if we get national rate capes for payday loans. But as we debate whether payday lending should get regulated as a part of the CFPA, these possible outcomes and deregulatory means to improving the industry are worth thinking about.

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Wednesday ~ March 10th, 2010 at 11:41 pm
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[...] payday lending through deregulation? Sounds plausible. A recent paper from Robert DeYoung and Ronnie Phillips at the Kansas City Fed [...]
Thursday ~ March 11th, 2010 at 2:36 am
Badtux
Sounds plausible in a universe where unicorns are purple and cotton candy grows on trees, perhaps. Not plausible in *this* neighborhood, though. The reality is that payday lenders and stop-and-robs (small high-priced food stores) have the same business model — move into one of the few spaces available in a poor neighborhood that is mostly residential where most of the residents rely on mass transit for their transportation and have no easy access to conventional banks or grocery stores, and rip off the local population using the monopoly power gained by taking one of the few business-zoned spaces within that residential neighborhood.
The reality is that the first-mover advantage that stop-and-robs and payday lenders get by being the first into a neighborhood is enormous. First, other payday lenders and stop-and-robs aren’t going to move into a neighborhood where there are N customers and where N/2 customers simply won’t support the business. Secondly, if other payday lenders and stop-and-robs *do* want to move into the neighborhood, the likely result is the same as why we have an oligopoly on the breakfast cereals aisle at your local grocer — the established cereal vendors have basically flooded all of the available space so that new competitors literally can’t find a shelf to lie on. That is, there’s only a limited number of commercial spaces in these neighborhoods, and by and large they’re already taken. Third, while there may be a brief race to the bottom if a second vendor *does* move into the neighborhood, sooner or later one of the two competitors runs out of money, leaving it back to being a monopoly again, so it takes a potential competitor with *deep* pockets to even consider moving into a neighborhood where there’s already an established competitor, at which point they drive the established competitor out of business and establish the business practices that gave them deeper pockets in the first place — i.e., the most ruthless, predatory business practices possible.
In short, “competition” in the payday loan space is where businesses use ruthless and predatory business practices in existing monopoly markets to drive out less predatory competitors in new markets, i.e., it’s a race to the bottom to see who is most ruthless and predatory. Anybody relying on “competition” to bring down the price of payday loans would probably be better off waiting for the tooth fairy. The reality of what those of us who’ve actually seen what happens in these neighborhoods see is that competition isn’t going to happen, regardless of how much magic sparkle pony dust the Free Market Fairy scatters about. There simply isn’t enough traffic in most of these neighborhoods to support more than one payday lender, and the people aren’t able to travel well enough to allow the sort of market competition that applies to businesses whose customers are more affluent and mobile. I cannot see any way to deal with predatory lending in these neighborhoods other than regulation. Of course, I’m just someone who’s actually lived and taught in such a neighborhood, as vs. somebody with a Ph.D. in Economics, so what do I know, right?
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Thursday ~ March 11th, 2010 at 3:29 am
Badtux
Hmm, now that I read the paper closely, neither of our explanations seems to fit the facts. While they observe that indeed payday loan prices are higher in areas with “captive” clientele, they also observe that competition does not appear to make a difference in the APR. Areas that actually do have real competition seem to be just as expensive as those with few payday lenders.
At first, I thought, “fixed costs”, the reason why markets with more hospital beds per capita have higher healthcare costs than markets with fewer hospital beds per capita, but that would tend to lead to a few mega-storefronts — think Wal-Mart vs. the small expensive shops they drove out of business. A huge payday loan business would have lower per-customer costs and thus be able to sell loans for less than a small storefront with higher per-customer costs. So why hasn’t that happened? I don’t have an answer to that question, and it’s irritating me. Even my prior mobility notion doesn’t seem to fully fit — we’re talking about the same people who shop at Wal-Mart, and Wal-Mart doesn’t seem to have a problem with getting folks to drive there for lower prices…
Saturday ~ March 20th, 2010 at 1:23 pm
Jon Schultz
The huge concern with the APR of a loan, which many people have, is misplaced. The APR by itself tells you nothing. It doesn’t tell you whether the loan is a good idea for the consumer and it doesn’t tell you how much profit the lender is making. There is no God-determined “natural” APR for loans, it is all a matter of the type of loan and the dynamics of supply and demand in the market.
Life could put any one of us in a situation where we might beg someone, “Please lend me $20 and I will pay you back $25 in one hour,” even though that is an APR of 219,000%. But no greedy lender would offer such loans commercially because the cost of issuing each would be over $5 and he would lose his shirt fast. When you focus on the APR, you miss the big picture.
Small, short-term loans – the only type of loan (or fast emergency loan) which many people can qualify for – must have a relatively high APR because the lender only receives interest on a small amount of money for a short period of time, and must recoup costs. Even the nonprofit payday loan offered as a public service by Goodwill Industries and Prospera Credit Union has a 252% APR (goodmoneystore.com).
Of course the Federal government should invalidate state APR caps as unconstitutional infringements of freedom of commerce, while implementing strong disclosure laws to ensure that consumers truly understand the terms of loans which are offered to them. Then not only would more companies get into the business, ensuring prices are reasonable relative to costs, but alternative services such as installment payday loans would be able to be offered as well.
Installment payday loans would be for those payday loan borrowers who know from the start that they won’t be able to repay in full on payday. It would enable them to leave two or more checks, instead of one, which would be cashed by the lender on successive paydays. Then those already stressed borrowers wouldn’t have to return to the store on payday to “roll over” the loan, in the states which allow it, and in the states which don’t allow it they wouldn’t have to go to another payday loan store to take out a new loan and then return to the original store to pay off the first.
And because all that lender processing of rollovers and new loans would be eliminated, installment payday loans could be offered at a lower APR than single payday loans. But because payday lenders currently operate under very narrow exemptions to state usury laws I don’t think there are any states where such multi-payday loans can be offered.
Saturday ~ March 20th, 2010 at 1:49 pm
Badtux
We have institutions that provide the kind of installment payment loans that you propose, Jon. They’re called BANKS, and the product that you’re grasping for a name for is called a “personal loan” or “credit card”. And you are correct that there is no natural limit to the interest rates that payday lenders charge, it is set by the high fixed costs of operating the storefronts and making the loans divided across the number of customers that any particular storefront has. But your notion that the fact that there is no natural limit means we should not cap that APR is just astounding. It’s as if you’re saying, “okay, there’s no natural upper limit, so we’ll let the industry go into a death spiral of higher and higher interest rates just because regulating it would make the free market fairy cry!” How, exactly, does that serve the interests of either the customers of payday lenders or indeed of payday lenders themselves?
You may be right that it’s the high fixed per-loan costs of issuing these loans that is preventing the Walmartization of the industry. On the other hand, perhaps APR regulation can lead the industry to explore how to improve its efficiency. The market hasn’t done that for some reason — sorry, the Free Market Fairy didn’t wave her (his?) magic wand and make sparkle ponies that poop sparkle berries appear. I see no reason why we should not explore other means, even if they make the Free Market Fairy cry.
Saturday ~ March 20th, 2010 at 2:51 pm
Jon Schultz
Badtux, first of all personal loans and credit cards require a credit report check, which payday loans do not. Payday loan customers, by and large, do not qualify for those (or for additional credit on their cards if they have any), although they must be earning a certain amount so that money can be repaid on payday. The lenders could give people a month to pay, instead of two weeks on average, which would halve the APR, but then the default rate would go up and they would have to raise prices. The annual filings of the publicly traded payday loan companies show that they are not making a huge profit, with an average return on investment of about six or seven percent, I have read.
You can only have it one of two ways. Either independent merchants and service providers have a right to set their own prices, with the dynamics of supply and demand determining where those prices will be, or we depend on the wisdom and honesty of politicians to set them. I personally think the first is far preferable. If you are or ever may be a merchant or service provider I don’t think you would enjoy the government telling you how much you can charge for your products or services.
That does not preclude the government from directly assisting the needy with funds collected from taxation. Unlike many conservatives, I am not against that. What I am against is the government infringing on freedom of commerce in trying to force businesses to do so. That hurts people and upsets the natural balances of the economy. The 36% APR cap which many people are calling for would simply put payday lenders out of business, put their employees out of work, cause their their landlords and suppliers to lose customers, and leave payday loan borrowers with one less option, the option which they had been choosing over others.
Yes, some payday loan customers choose unwisely and make their situations worse, but don’t people also develop problems when they are incautious in the use of credit cards, automobiles, wine, pharmaceutical drugs, desserts and other items? Obesity is a much worse problem in America than payday loan debt. But are consumer groups calling Ben and Jerry “predatory food sharks who trap people in a cycle of overeating” and calling for a cap on the amount of fat and sugar allowed in foods which would effectively ban ice cream? No, because they use desserts themselves and feel it is their business as to whether or not they overindulge (and they know the public wouldn’t support it for the same reason). It would be nice if they would afford the same courtesy to payday loan customers.
Saturday ~ March 20th, 2010 at 9:47 pm
Badtux
Black and white thinking like “you can have it only one of two ways” is utter nonsense and drivel. There are a wide variety of goods and services which government regulates for quality and other attributes, and a wide variety of other commercial transactions which government outlaws entirely. You cannot, for example, set up a crack cocaine kiosk outside the gates of an elementary school — government interferes in that commercial transaction. And if you are a public utility you cannot simply set the price of your electricity at whatever the market will bear — you must set the price of your electricity at what your state’s regulatory body will allow, given your information on how much it costs to provide electricity and how much over that will obtain the legal maximum profit for you. All of this, apparently, according to you means that government outlaws *all* transactions. Which is ludicrous and exhibits the same kind of black and white, left and right, immoderate absolutist nonsense which has turned our political discourse into a collection of howling morons on the right and screeching lunatics on the left making those of us who want sensible, realistic, pragmatic policies just want to shout “Shut UP you lunatics, we don’t care about your ideological extremism, all we want is what WORKS regardless of whether it complies with your ideological Bolshevik or Bushevik ideology!”
In short: We regulate things on a daily basis for quality and price. To state that this means we don’t have a market is utter and complete nonsense. It may indeed be that 36% is too low an interest rate for payday lendors to stay in business (and personally I do think it is, because of the horrific default rate for payday loans). If so, they’ll start going out of business — and the free market in democratic representation (which uses VOTES rather than MONEY to select for policies that maximize the public good) will repeal that law as not in the public interest. That is how it works in a democracy. To state that we cannot regulate *anything* for quality and price because then we’re some sort of tyranny or something, on the other hand, is just absolutionist nonsense.
Sunday ~ March 21st, 2010 at 1:31 pm
Jon Schultz
When I said “independent” merchants and service providers I meant those who have not received any special license or favor from government, such as utility companies which are contracted to provide services which require building on public property. Obviously you can’t have a free market there. And I usually define freedom of commerce as the right of citizens to engage in mutually agreeable commercial transactions where no dangerous goods are involved. Obviously there needs to be additional regulation where guns and other such items are involved.
But don’t forget that this country was founded on the idea of unalienable rights, which government should not infringe on under any circumstances. If the government – which means politicians – has the right to tell lenders how much they can charge, then it can do the same for any independent merchant or service provider. It should not even matter what the majority of people think, as democracy is more than majority or mob rule. It involves a guarantee of rights, and lines have to be drawn somewhere. I think my definition of freedom of commerce is perhaps workable and stand by it until I hear a better one.
In 2008 majorities in Arizona and Ohio voted in favor of interest rate caps which effectively ban payday lending (although lenders in Ohio have managed to stay in business so far by lending under another license and tacking on check cashing fees), and I think the courts should overturn those decisions simply on the basis of protecting freedom of commerce, just as they have protected freedom of speech in decisions which allow forms of self-expression which are distasteful to many people.
This is America, where you put your autograph up for sale on eBay for one million dollars, and it is not your responsibility if someone buys it and then has financial problems. If lenders are responsible for ensuring that borrowers can afford their loans, when why shouldn’t other merchants and service providers also be? Before long we’ll have a society where no one can buy anything without the seller being required to investigate their finances to make a determination as to whether they can afford it. And your purchases will go into a government database, as is happening to payday loan customers in several states, so they can be tracked to make sure you are not buying too much at once. All in the name of sensible regulation…
Sunday ~ March 21st, 2010 at 1:48 pm
Badtux
By your argument, though, setting up a kiosk to sell crack cocaine across from a schoolyard is fine and dandy. This is America, after all. Outlawing selling crack cocaine to school children is interfering with freedom of commerce.
If a state by popular vote decides to end payday lending either directly or by setting an unrealistically low interest rate, how does that differ from outlawing setting up a kiosk to sell crack cocaine to school children? In both cases, the people of the state have decided that this product is harmful to their society and outlawed it. So what makes the two cases of “interfering with commerce” — crack to schoolchildren, and payday loans to poor people — fundamentally different?
Or are you truly saying that selling crack to schoolchildren really *shouldn’t* be illegal because it is interfering with commerce? That would be intellectually honest of you if you really believe in your argument, but at that point I, and most Americans, basically have a fundamental moral and philosophical difference with you since we (the majority) believe that allowing the sale of harmful products to vulnerable populations is wrong and that government has a fundamental responsibility to step in and deal with that situation. If your belief in freedom of commerce applies to things that the majority clearly believes should be outlawed as harmful to vulnerable populations and to society as a whole, it’s pointless to continue at that point because it becomes clearer that your problem is with democracy as a whole, which we (the majority) like and which you apparently have a problem with. At which point I could mention Winston Churchill’s observation that “democracy is the worst of all possible systems of government, excepting all others that have been tried”. But really, what’s the point? Trying to discuss the virtues of democracy with an anarcho-capitalist is like trying to discuss the virtues of democracy with Stalin, extremists simply don’t like democracy and will never agree that despite its warts it’s the best system we have at the moment. Pointless.
Sunday ~ March 21st, 2010 at 2:35 pm
Jon Schultz
I said, “where no dangerous goods are involved.” Crack cocaine is a dangerous substance which falls under that purview.
Loans are simply the renting of money, and you can legally give schoolchildren any amount of money. Therefore the “defective product” argument is invalid. It is based on the claim that most payday loan borrowers cannot repay on payday, and therefore the service doesn’t work. I believe the industry disputes that claim, but even if it is true all that means that that the lenders should be allowed to offer installment payday loans, as I mentioned.
A free market in loans, as opposed to a narrow exemption to a state usury law based on religious ideas, would enable payday and other lenders to better serve their customers. I agree there should be strong regulation to ensure honesty in the presentation of loans and civility in the collection of them, but capping prices should be off limits.
Not only is it authoritarian, it is also unwise. Look at Oregon, where Jeff Merkley spearheaded the “reform” which cut prices – and payday lenders’ profits so that 80% of the stores closed. Now many Oregonians who want a payday loan have to get on a bus to go the nearest store, where they wait longer in line and are perhaps rushed through the transaction, or else get a loan online which is generally more expensive as online lenders don’t get walk-in traffic and have to advertise for customers. Some online lenders are also dishonest, as regulation there is murky.
Dartmouth College professor Jonathan Zinman studied the effects of the law and found that by and large Oregonians were worse off. See:
http://www.cfsa.net/downloads/Highlights_Zinman_Dartmouth.pdf
Saturday ~ June 26th, 2010 at 12:32 pm
Assaf
Zinman’s study you quote, has been debunked as a sham by me (I’m a statistician at the University of Washington). Simply put, he takes 1+1 and turns it into 3, or 0, or 22 – but never 1+1=2.
All this to suit the preconceived goal of the study’s funders – the payday-loan industry – to “prove” that regulating them is bad for the public.
Here’s a link to the abstract, and to the pdf report.
The exodus of payday businesses from Oregon is also briefly described there. Rather than a purely economic move, it was a pre-emptive strike, with most companies moving out before the law was enacted. Probably they aimed to create a “shock and awe” in the Oregon lending market. Their own study (when properly analyzed) fails to show that borrowers were any worse off.
Saturday ~ June 26th, 2010 at 12:34 pm
Assaf
Sorry, I posted the link to the abstract twice (report can be reached from there in one click). Anyway: direct link to the pdf report debunking Zinman’s Oregon payday article.
Sunday ~ March 21st, 2010 at 2:45 pm
Badtux
The question is, who decides what is a harmful good? You, or the majority in a democracy (via their representatives)? Your argument is fundamentally anti-democratic, saying that your notion of what constitutes a “harmful good”, or Jonathan Zinman’s notion of what constitutes a “harmful good”, should override what the will of the majority in Oregon decided was a harmful good (i.e., payday loans). You are making a fundamentally authoritarian argument that your judgment should override the judgment of the majority of voters in Oregon.
Could the majority be wrong? Sure. And in a democracy, it’s quite respectable and responsible to attempt to educate and inform the majority that they are in fact wrong. But to go from that and call the will of the majority “authoritarian” is utter nonsense. This is not a Stalinist dictatorship. “The Government” here is We The People, for better or for worse. I may have a sour opinion of the wisdom of the majority of my fellow Americans, but really, what is the alternative? Other than imposing a tyranny of you and Jonathan Zinman upon the majority that decided that payday lending in Oregon should be abolished?
Sunday ~ March 21st, 2010 at 3:36 pm
Jon Schultz
Again, democracy is more than majority rule. That’s why we have the Bill of Rights, the 9th Amendment of which somewhat vaguely protects rights not specifically enumerated there, and courts sometimes do invalidate the results of elections as unconstitutional. I’m proposing a new Amendment which would specifically guarantee freedom of commerce, defined as the right of citizens to freely engage in mutually agreeable honest transactions where dangerous materials are not involved.
I do support the idea of a federal consumer protection bureau to investigate complaints of deception or harassment in all forms of commerce (or complaints not sufficiently addressed at the state level), but not the one envisioned by Elizabeth Warren and her disciple Obama which would have an overreaching authority to curb vaguely defined things such as “unfair and abusive lending” with mean and foolish measures such as interest rate caps and limits on frequency of transactions.
Sunday ~ March 21st, 2010 at 5:29 pm
Badtux
I was discussing the Bill of Rights with someone in Australia a few years back and discovered that Australia has no bill of rights in their Constitution. I asked him why, and he said “any right which is not supported by the majority will be ignored anyhow, so why bother having a Bill of Rights actually written in your Constitution?” Look at the 15th Amendment, for example. It guaranteed blacks the right to vote, and was passed in 1870 as part of a package of amendments intended to punish the South. But blacks didn’t actually get the right to vote until LBJ signed the Voting Rights Act in 1965, a hundred years later. Why? Because the majority of Americans did not agree that blacks should have the right to vote until then, so the only way to impose the right to vote upon Americans would have been via tyranny.
Which is my point: If the majority wish to strictly regulate payday lending as toxic and harmful, but you and Jonathan Zinman have a different opinion that payday lending is actually good and should not be regulated, what way other than tyranny is there to impose you and Jonathan Zinman’s opinion upon America and Americans? Should a minority have the right to impose their opinion upon the minority just because they feel themselves to be morally and intellectually superior? How does that differ from apartheid-era South Africa, or the segregation-era American South?
I mean, I disagree with my fellow Americans often. But when they make some decision that I disagree with, I don’t try to impose my own opinion by force. That would be the work of a tyrant. Instead I try to educate them. And as Churchill once said, Americans eventually do seem to come around to the right thing to do, even though they seem to go through all the various wrong ways of doing things in the process. It seems to me that you harbor a deep-seated mistrust of Americans. I’d take a cheap shot and say that Osama bin Laden probably agrees with you about the stupidity and venality of the average American, but that would be a cheap shot since you didn’t actually say anything about stupidity and venality
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Monday ~ March 22nd, 2010 at 2:29 pm
Jon Schultz
You vill allow the payday loans or you vill go to the gas chamber!
Thanks for the interesting discussion.
Monday ~ March 22nd, 2010 at 2:48 pm
Badtux
I guess my take-away from this discussion is that you can either have democracy, or you can have unregulated free markets, but you can’t have both because the majority in a democracy will often (not always, but often) vote to regulate activities that they feel are not in the public’s best interests. Interesting how economics and civics collide here, eh?
Monday ~ March 22nd, 2010 at 6:04 pm
Adam Ozimek
Badtux,
“Should a minority have the right to impose their opinion upon the minority just because they feel themselves to be morally and intellectually superior?”
Well, should a majority have the right to impose their opinion upon the minority just because they feel themselves to be morally and intellectually superior?
It is very strange to argue that the position that adults are capable of judging for themselves what is in their best interest is somehow the position that believes itself to be morally and intellectually superior. It is even stranger to call that the “authoritarian” position.
You drew the parallel between regulating payday loans and preventing children from buying drugs, and I agree with you; the government deciding what are “acceptable” and “unacceptable” rates at which someone may borrow and someone may lend is quite comparable to treating them like children.
The burden of proof is on the critics of payday lending to show that they are harmful. When the harmfulness of a good is very disagreed upon, the “harm” would be upon those choosing, and the exchange concerns consenting adults, then you have to be very authoritative to claim that the individual is not best suited to make that decision. This is especially true here with payday loans where the balance of the evidence shows they aren’t harmful by most reasonable definitions of harm.
Monday ~ March 22nd, 2010 at 6:18 pm
Badtux
“Well, should a majority have the right to impose their opinion upon the minority”
The reality is that, short of imposing tyranny, you cannot stop the majority from imposing their opinion upon the minority. The 15th Amendment attempted to give blacks the right to vote in 1870. Yet they did not actually gain the right to vote until 1965, because it was not until 1965 that a majority of Americans agreed that blacks should have the right to vote. I.e., I’m not saying that the majority is always *right* (to say that I disagree with the pre-1965 majority is an understatement), what I’m saying is that the only way to overrule the opinion of the majority is via tyranny of the minority over the majority, and that imposing the will of the minority upon the majority is thus inherently incompatible with democracy.
It is interesting that economists who have confidence in the wisdom of the masses when it comes to “rational markets” and such, suddenly lose said confidence when the majority in a democracy makes political decisions (such as regulating payday lenders) that they disagree with. You can’t have it both way. Either the majority is perfectly rational and thus make “rational markets” work without regulation, or they’re irrational in which case regulation is needed to make markets work. So which is it, are the majority irrational — in which case regulation of payday lenders is needed to protect irrational people from making bad decisions? Or are they rational — in which case they’re making rational decisions in the marketplace of politics (which IS a marketplace, albeit one that uses votes rather than money to reach its decisions) to vote for laws to regulate payday lenders? Checkmate
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Monday ~ March 22nd, 2010 at 7:41 pm
Adam Ozimek
What you can do is greatly raise the bar for how great of a majority is required to impose their will on a minority. That’s precisely what the constitution, which you see no use for, does.
Their is no inconsistency between assuming people generally make rational choices about their private decisions, and yet make irrational choices in public policy. See Bryan Caplan’s The Myth of The Rational Voter.
Monday ~ March 22nd, 2010 at 8:06 pm
Badtux
So let me get this straight. The majority generally make rational choices about their private decisions (though it turns out that isn’t actually true — http://snarkypenguin.blogspot.com/2010/03/chicago-school-rational-markets-and.html ) yet somehow get irrational when it comes to voting? Next thing you’ll be telling me is that water is both wet and dry at the same time
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My point about the Constitution was not that I don’t like it. My point about the Constitution is that it is useless when the majority decide to ignore it. Whether we are talking about denying blacks the vote for 100 years after the Constitution granted them the right, or banning a political party (the Communist Party in the 1950′s) despite the 1st Amendment’s guaranteed right of freedom of association (which, apparently, only applies if you associate with the “right” people), or disappearing brown people to Gitmo without trial despite the 6th Amendment guarantee of right to a speedy trial, or denial of habeas corpus to those people despite Article I section 9′s guarantee of habeas corpus as a right for all cases not involving military members or invasion or insurrection, reality is that the majority rules in a democracy and the only way to prevent the majority from ruling is via tyranny. Educating people about rule of law and why it’s a good idea is the only realistic thing to do in that case. Yes, the Supreme Court can rule. But as President Andrew Jackson once supposedly replied, “Justice Marshall has ruled, now let him enforce it.” How many inmates have been released from Gitmo because the Supreme Court ruled it was unconstitutional? Hint…. it’s a whole non-negative number less than one
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If the majority in a state decide to ban payday lending in that state, all your nattering about “they have no right!” is nonsense, as Chairman Mao pointed out power grows from the barrel of a gun, and in a democracy the majority has the majority of the guns (or, rather, the votes that control those guns). Stating that technocrats should be able to overrule the will of the majority because they know better sounds profoundly un-American to me — even though in many cases the technocrats *do* know better. As H.L. Mencken pointed out, democracy is the notion that the common folk know what they want, and deserve to get it, good and hard. So it goes
.
Monday ~ March 22nd, 2010 at 8:59 pm
Adam Ozimek
I suggest you read this essay, which summarizes the main ideas behind Caplan’s book:
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=8262
Monday ~ March 22nd, 2010 at 9:12 pm
Badtux
Shorter Caplan: “Voters are irrational because they disagree with me!”
Not a compelling argument, and does not address my central point, which is that you cannot say that someone who is irrational in one area of economics (political economy) suddenly becomes magically rational in another area of economics (monetary economy). There is no Free Market Fairy spewing magic sparkle pony dust to suddenly turn irrational people into rational people or vice versa.
And yes, I call shenanigans on the notion that political economy is somehow fundamentally different from monetary economy. Both are token-based economies where consumers in a marketplace view the available choices and choose whichever one they like for whatever reasons, rational or irrational, that consumers use when choosing things. They are markets, pure and simple.
Tuesday ~ March 23rd, 2010 at 6:36 am
Adam Ozimek
Even if you disagree with Caplan that, on average, the assessments of economists as a group is the best guess when it comes to economic issues, that doesn’t really put a dent in his model of how private rationality -> public policy irrationality. People have preferences over beliefs, the impact of their personal beliefs upon actual policy outcomes is nearly zero, but the benefit to them of satisfying their preferences over beliefs is high. So it is completely rational to believe whatever you want when the costs to you are low and the benefits are high. Thus you get aggregate policy beliefs that are irrational.
Saturday ~ March 27th, 2010 at 9:35 am
Walmart for President « Modeled Behavior
[...] Avent was pivoting off of Matt Yglesias, who was calling for Walmart to get into banking for the benefit of consumers. Avent agreed, especially with regard to payday lending, arguing that more competition may be just what that market needs, which I have also called for. [...]
Tuesday ~ May 11th, 2010 at 7:23 am
Payday loans for millionaires « Modeled Behavior
[...] try to make payday lending more competitive, not less. This means getting traditional banks and companies like Walmart into the [...]
Tuesday ~ May 11th, 2010 at 7:24 am
Payday loans for the wealthy « Modeled Behavior
[...] try to make payday lending more competitive, not less. This means getting traditional banks and companies like Walmart into the [...]
Wednesday ~ July 14th, 2010 at 8:00 am
ronald eddy
Many of the lending companies use risk-based rates for bad credit loan. The rate in an advert will seem attractive now for Cash 1 hour away.
Monday ~ April 8th, 2013 at 9:38 pm
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Monday ~ April 8th, 2013 at 9:39 pm
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