A few posts back I asked Arnold Kling about Gross Job data and a recalculations story. However, I think it worth examining how with think about recessions in general. My tendency has been to describe recession as periods in which people “lost their jobs.” However, the JOLTS data suggest that we might more accurately think of recessions as periods it hard to find a new job.
Calculated Risk provides the graph
Layoffs and discharges increased during the current recession, but hiring decreased by far more. Indeed, the increase in layoffs was overwhelmed by a decrease in quits, causing overall job marker turnover to fall.
I wouldn’t have though of a recession as a time in which employer-employee relationships became more solid, but that seems to be what is happening.
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Thursday ~ December 10th, 2009 at 3:14 am
teageegeepea
Since young people keep entering the labor market, it is indeed a problem. It’s a good counter-argument for defenders of the Europe/Japan model where it’s either virtually impossible to fire a worker due to regulations or it’s expected that a firm takes care of a salaryman for life. Shortsighted to only think of the current jobs (what is seen) rather than new hires (what is not seen).
Thursday ~ December 10th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
No hiring - Economics -
[...] SMITH posts the chart below, from Calculated Risk: And he writes:My tendency has been to describe recession as [...]
Friday ~ December 11th, 2009 at 12:15 am
jsalvatier
This is an interesting stylized fact (I think I remember hearing this before). I wonder if much research has been done to explain it.
Friday ~ December 11th, 2009 at 9:16 am
maybe
Check out Michael Elsby, Ryan Michaels and Gary Solon, “The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment,” (AEJ: Macro).
The view that it is all in the hiring comes from Shimer. EMS show that this is wrong using CPS data.