From Jim Hamilton
The challenges for private oil companies to increase oil production are pretty daunting.
ExxonMobil (XOM) has been producing a little over 2.4 million barrels of oil a day for the last year and a half, its lowest rate of production over the last decade.
Its becoming increasingly clear that oil production is stabilizing. I would have expected a more traditional Hubert Peak but technological changes seem to suggest that
A) Oil production is slowing down slightly sooner than I would have thought.
B) Production is unlikely to decline rapidly but will in no way keep up with growing demand.
Moving forward, these facts must be central to our national policy. As I believe is clear to everyone by now, rapidly increasing prices of oil shift the balance of international power in ways that are not favorable to the United States.
Even if there is massive advancement in alternative fuel technology, what that likely does is slow the growth of oil prices. If alternative fuel is viable because oil is expensive then alternative fuels cannot make oil inexpensive.
We have a vital national interest is subsidizing the move away from oil. Not to incubate new technologies or simply insulate ourselves from shock, but to drive down the international price. To make oil a less valuable natural resource.
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Wednesday ~ October 14th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
Apex
2 words: Nuclear Power. Nothing else has any chance of having any near term impact.
We should spend lots of time and money on all the alternative sources of energy. But if we don’t have a gap plan its oil until something else can supply our needs and wind, solar, and biofuels, are not anywhere near being able to replace even a modest amount of our oil usage. In addition all have physical barriers that make it unreasonable to expect them to have large impact without huge advancements.
Wind: It would take massive amounts of dedicated land to supply sufficent energy to replace enough oil to matter. Most of the windiest areas of the country are in the plains and need massive cross continental power grids to deliver the energy.
Solar: Uses large amounts of water to produce solar panels and we already have a potential fresh water shortage. Efficiency of straight photovoltaic cells does not capture nearly enough of the energy.
Bio-fuels: It takes nearly a gallon of oil to produce a gallon of ethanol, in addition if you burned up every bushel of corn produced in the U.S. it could only replace about 30% of our oil needs. Other ethanol sources may prove much better but they are decades away from any mass production and delivery.
Now I realize that you don’t have to replace all oil demand and you could replace some from each of the different sources but demand for energy is likely to continue to climb and current alternative energy sources cannot keep pace, subsidized or not.
The only solution that doesn’t involve drastic increases in energy prices along with decreases in use, is nuclear power. It’s here, its abundant, its economical, and yes, its amazingly safe. Just ask France.
Wednesday ~ October 14th, 2009 at 7:56 pm
RickRussellTX
“ExxonMobil (XOM) has been producing a little over 2.4 million barrels of oil a day for the last year and a half, its lowest rate of production over the last decade.”
What an odd thing to say. We’re coming off an historic price fluctuation, and prices started dropping… exactly 1.5 years ago!
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0f/Brent_Spot_monthly.svg
I actually think peak oil is happening, but I also think Exxon isn’t necessarily the bellwether for the entire industry.
Wednesday ~ January 27th, 2010 at 1:19 pm
Ramvad
The only sure way to reduce the importance of Oil is to consume less. And in the bargain maintain the status of USA and other developed countries.
USA has only 4% of Oil reserves ….notwithstanding the “agreements they have with other Oil producing countries” .. We the USA is consuming 24% of Oil that is extracted daily- worldwide!!! How can we keep keep it sustainable when WE consume 24% of the world’s production year after year while we have very little oil of our own. This is of course notwithstanding the practice of last 20 years of storing crude in every cave and disused mine in the USA. But that is just bunkering! It goes mush further than that! It is to do with how we plan our towns and urban cities…If they were planned properly there would be less need to jump in your car and go shopping or collect kids from school or go to recreational facilities or even work…..Neighbourhood must be planned to eliminate the use of cars as far as it is possible…The bonus is that we will have a more caring and homogenius society as well as keep fit and be healthy!..( less health bills- A healthy Nation- a healthy people)
Regards! Enjoy the cycle ride or the walk..!!!