The long view gives a little more perspective on how green the current shoots are. What we see is a pretty good top forming on the series. If we following the pattern of the last two jobless recoveries then we will get significantly more dip in the coming weeks.
Indeed, for the recovery to be truly jobless, and not job negative, we are going to have to see a strong fall in the next few weeks. The current level of new claims is still too high for us to be job neutral.
The good news is that it is moving in the right direction at roughly at what is now close to the right pace. We’ll see if that holds up through next week.