Apparently tomorrow is a holiday, so we get weekly new claims, monthly jobs and unemployment all this morning. I’ll start with summaries and update with charts and analysis later in the day.

Brief Summary:

Jobs Report

467K jobs lost in June is not good. What’s worse, however, is that

1) We are moving in the wrong direction. We had 322K jobs lost in May

2) The big downward revisions have stopped and in fact April job losses were revised upwards.

Downward revisions are a strong sign that the job market is recovering because of the way the models are technically constructed. The models have a lot of inertia built into them and so their estimates overshoot at turning points. Lots of revisions in one direction is evidence that we are in a turning point.

 

Unemployment Rate

Rises to 9.5% from 9.4%

No real surprises here. We know the rate will continue to rise even if the recovery has begun and .1% a month is not bad

 

Initial Unemployment Claims

Fall from 630K to 614K

Good movement. Right direction. However, we were supposed to be under 600 by now. I really would like to see this number turning around faster. The longer we hover the more concerned I become. Hovering at 600K is not a jobless recovery, it is an endless recession. This number has to fall

 

Charts and analysis to come.